Rather than living in the present, it’s fun to look to the future and past; the 2022 NBA Draft class has multiple players ready to shine this coming year.
NBA Rookies typically aren’t the most impactful players. Considering that they are typically raw and playing against the best competition that they have ever faced, it’s difficult for most rookies to adjust to the league.
In addition, players are sometimes put into situations or roles that don’t best suit them. They may be thrown into a tough spot because of a team’s lack of talent, fit, or other factors. In both Estimated Plus Minus (EPM) and LEBRON, two advanced metrics that seek to gauge a player’s impact when on the floor, Jaden Ivey and Blake Wesley – both rookies – were ranked as the bottom two players.
This isn’t to say that either are necessarily terrible players, and these stats aren’t predictive of future success. They can still be very good players. In fact, advanced metrics like these viewed Darius Garland as the league’s worst player in his rookie year, and now he’s a one-time All-Star and one of the league’s better offensive point guards.
NBA players begin to find their footing in year 2
Players will sometimes find their grove and feel in the league in the second half of their rookie year, but typically, their improvement and success will come in their second professional season, Not only do they have a year of NBA playing under their belt, but they also have a full offseason to train and prepare.
That’s why players often will take a second-year leap (sometimes it does take until the third year as well). Think about the players who were just sophomores and noticeably improved this past season: Evan Mobley, Josh Giddey, Franz Wagner, Alperen Sengun, Trey Murphy III, Jalen Johnson (bigger breakout coming for year three), and Quentin Grimes.
With the Summer League starting, it feels appropriate to look forward to the coming 2023-24 season and try to get a grasp of who some of the breakout candidates from the 2022 NBA Draft may be. I’m going to pick one player from each division who I could see having a breakout in 2024.