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NBA: 6 Sophomore players primed for a breakout season in 2023-24

By Charlie Spungin

Dec 7, 2022; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; Detroit Pistons guard Jaden Ivey (23) dribbles against New Orleans Pelicans guard Dyson Daniels (11) during the first half at Smoothie King Center. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 7, 2022; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; Detroit Pistons guard Jaden Ivey (23) dribbles against New Orleans Pelicans guard Dyson Daniels (11) during the first half at Smoothie King Center. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports /
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Jaden Ivey
Jaden Ivey (Photo by Mike Mulholland/Getty Images) /

Central Division (premier) breakout candidate: Jaden Ivey (DET)

Honorable Mentions: Marjon Beauchamp, Dalen Terry, Jalen Duren

As previously stated, Ivey’s poor advanced metrics mean nothing when forecasting him as a player. He had the ball forced into his hands upon Cade Cunningham’s injury early in the season, and as a rookie, it was a role he wasn’t entirely ready for. Guess what: that’s okay, as (1) Cunningham will return and (2) Ivey will be better.

In fact, Ivey showed serious flashes toward the season’s conclusion, as he averaged 22.9 points and 7.7 assists per game on 57.5 TS% (44.7/39.7/90.2 splits) in the final nine games of the season. He showed increased comfort in getting downhill and into his mid-range pull-up. On catch-and-shoot threes, he shot a blazing 50.0% over the stretch, and while this number isn’t sustainable, it’s a good sign for what’s to come with Cunningham’s return.

There’s reason to have defensive concerns, yes. His defense isn’t incredible or anything of the sort and is below average. With that said, Ivey does have some quality defenders around him in Jalen Duren, Killian Hayes, Ausar Thompson, Marcus Sasser, and Killian Hayes. Note some of those guard defenders, as Ivey will be able to hide on weaker defenders.

For the season as a whole, Ivey just averaged 16.3 points and 5.2 assists but on a poor 52.8 TS% (41.6/34.3/74.7). When I say a breakout for Ivey is imminent, I don’t mean he’ll be an All-Star. With that said, I don’t think expecting 20 points per game on improved efficiency with a similar number of assists is too unlikely. With Cunningham’s return, the floor will open up for Ivey, as he will be able to play both with and without the ball, where he is capable in both contexts.

I actually did a Twitter thread on Ivey’s close to the season, so if you want to see some more stats and film about him, check that out:

https://twitter.com/CharlieSpungin/status/1672003044173651968?s=20