New York Knicks: Extending Josh Hart to a big deal is a necessary gamble

The New York Knicks must sign Josh Hart to a contract extension, but it’s certainly somewhat of a gamble. 

Even after Josh Hart opted into the final year of his contract with the New York Knicks ahead of the start of free agency, it always seemed likely that the two sides would figure out an extension that makes sense.

There is some optimism that Hart and the Knicks could come to a multi-year agreement before the start of the season. There is hope it could happen as soon as this week. While it may seem like a necessary move from the Knicks, it’s certainly one that comes as a gamble.

The rumored deal that Hart is expected to sign with the Knicks is likely going to be in the four-year, $75 million range. That likely means he’s going to get a deal in the $18-20 million per year vicinity. That will make him the fourth-highest-paid player on the team and, perhaps most importantly, bring about plenty of more responsibility.

Why signing Josh Hart will be considered a gamble for the New York Knicks

While Hart was amazing during his 25-game regular-season stretch with the Knicks toward the latter end of last year and into the playoffs, I find it impossible to believe that Hart’s going to be able to maintain his high-level efficiency of play.

In the 25 games after he was traded to New York, Hart averaged 10 points, seven rebounds, and four assists per game on 59 percent shooting from the field and 52 percent shooting from 3-point range. His efficiency dropped in the playoffs but he was still fairly valuable to the team.

Heading into 2023-24, if he signs the extension, he’s basically on a contract that’s going to demand him to be that level of play over the course of 82 games. Quite frankly, especially from an efficiency standpoint, Hart has never been that consistent over the course of his career.

Before being traded to the Knicks last season, Hart was only shooting 30 percent from 3-point range. That’s not ideal from a 3-and-D wing. In the previous two seasons, he appeared in less than 55 games per year. And still had his moments of inconsistency.

Hart has certainly grown as a player but, essentially, the Knicks will be paying Hart and Donte DiVincenzo nearly $30 million per season to lead a second unit that was a weak part of the team last year.

The problem with that, of course, is the fact that New York is expecting two historically inconsistent players to offer stability to the bench. In a vacuum, it certainly makes sense. But for a team that isn’t even in the title window of the Eastern Conference, you can’t help but have a few concerns about how this all plays out.

Nevertheless, the Knicks almost have to get this extension done. But there’s no question it could prove to be quite risky.