The evidence continues to build that this is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's time to win the NBA MVP.
With roughly a month left in the 2024-25 NBA regular season, the NBA MVP race is neck and neck. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is making a strong run to win his first major award, while Nikola Jokic is attempting to make history by winning his fourth in the last five years. From all indications, it's likely that the race for the MVP award is going to go down to the very last week of the regular season.
SGA is having the most productive season of his career thus far, averaging 33 points, six assists, and five rebounds per game, while Jokic continues to do insane things at the center position while averaging 29 points, 13 rebounds, and 11 assists per game. SGA has the Thunder playing at a 68-win pace and sitting as the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference. After a slow start to the season, Jokic has powered the Nuggets up the West standings, and they're on pace to win 50-plus games and likely finish as a top-3 seed entering the NBA Playoffs.
Both Jokic and SGA are worthy MVP award candidates, but the evidence toward one continues to grow. As we head into the stretch run of the season, let's break down three reasons why SGA is in a position to win the NBA MVP award over Jokic.
Voter fatigue
I'm not a proponent of voter fatigue, but it's certainly a very real thing. Considering that Nikola Jokic has won three of the last four NBA MVP awards, this is something that is going to be in the back of the minds of voters. Again, this is something I firmly disagree with, but it will play a factor. But at least this time around, there's an MVP candidate who is worthy of winning the award. In past years, the argument could be made that voters opted against a specific player because he had won too many MVPs.
This time around, there's a fair argument to be made that SGA deserves the MVP award as much, and possibly even more, than Jokic. That's what is going to make voter fatigue this time around that much more digestible. No one will admit it, but I'd imagine it's going to play a factor in SGA getting a few more votes than perhaps he would've against another player who hasn't won as many MVPs as Jokic has of late.
SGA is the best player on the best team
All throughout NBA history, if we wanted to simplify the NBA's qualifications to win the MVP award, it could be defined as something as simple as the best player on the best team. This season, that argument would make sense for SGA in his bid to win the NBA MVP award. Oklahoma City has been neck and neck all season long with the Cleveland Cavaliers for the team with the best record in the NBA. In many ways, the Thunder should absolutely be viewed as the best team in the league.
SGA is the best player on the NBA's best team. That should count for something, right? Add in the fact that he's having one of the best years of his career, and his case for the NBA MVP award begins to make much more sense. As the final stretch of the regular season quickly approaches, the Thunder are going to be considered the favorites to make it out of the Western Conference. Depending on who you ask, they're probably going to be one of the top 2 favorites to win the NBA Championship.
Who's been at the center of the team's success over the past couple of seasons? SGA. There are no questions that he's the straw that stirs the drink that the Thunder are, and if the team is going to reach their lofty postseason expectations, it will largely be on the back of SGA. Sometimes, you don't have to complicate the NBA MVP race. SGA is clearly the best player on the best team. It may be that simple.
SGA's lack of a true supporting star
In what I believe is the one argument that completely tips the NBA MVP award is SGA's favor, when it comes to the notoriety on their respective supporting casts, Jokic takes the cake. Jokic has Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, and Michael Porter Jr. as his support system in his attempt to lead the Nuggets back to the promised land. On the other hand, SGA has Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren - and then a collection of strong role players that most of the general public can't name.
The amusing part is that the Thunder have the more complete team. The argument could be made that they have the deepest roster in the NBA. However, when it comes to star notoriety, SGA doesn't have that, and Jokic does. I'm sure that's something that will weigh heavy on the minds of the MVP voters. In a way, the argument could be made that SGA is doing more with less. And if you were to remove SGA from the Thunder, that team would probably be worse than a Nuggets team without Jokic.
Even though Nikola Jokic has had a great year for the Nuggets, it feels more and more like this is SGA's year to win the NBA MVP award. He's the best player on the best team and is in the midst of the best season of his career. The stars are aligning for SGA to break through. The hope is that the same will be the case for the Thunder heading into the playoffs, too.