The Miami Heat are slowly realizing that Tyler Herro is not the star player they hoped he could be.
When the Miami Heat selected Tyler Herro with the No. 13 pick in the 2019 NBA Draft, the hope was that, at the very least, he would be able to emerge as a viable 3-point shooter for the team. His floor was considered to be a shooting specialist in the NBA. However, it didn't take long before Herro would go on to prove that he could be much more than that.
Over the course of his first few years in the league, Herro quickly developed into a capable three-level scorer. He grew favor within the organization and the ceiling was certainly raised for the young guard. Not only would he be expected to be a consistent scorer on the wing, but there was a sense that he could develop into a star player. But while he's flashed that potential off and on over the last few seasons, the Heat may quickly be learning what the rest of the league may already have assumed.
A Tyler Herro led team is not a very good one
And it's that while Herro is a very good offensive player, he's not the type of star player that a team (or at least not the way the Heat is currently built) can build a winner around. Herro made his first All-Star Team this season, but during the second half of the season, the regression to the mean became very clear. Adding to that regression from Herro, the Heat have not been very competitive with him leading the way.
Since February 1, Herro has seen a fall in overall offensive efficiency. Over those 21 games played, Herro is shooting just 43 percent from the field overall and 28 percent shooting from 3-point range. After such a strong first half of the season, his regression during the final two months of the season are going to make his overall averages look pretty on par with his numbers for the rest of his career.
That leads you to believe that there may not be another step in Herro's progression. And if not, that's a pretty clear sign for the Heat that he's not a player you can't build a winning team around. That's not to say that Herro can't be a key player on a championship team; he just can't be your No. 1 or 2 option. That's not that outlandish of a conclusion to make; I'm just not sure if the Heat knew that.
With the way they've operated over the last few seasons, it did seem as if there was an internal push from the front office to advertise Herro as this next great star for the franchise. If nothing else, what the organization has to have learned this season is that's simply not the case.
Herro is a really good player and this is not to take a shot at his game. But he's constantly been set up to fail by the Heat. Maybe this terrible ending to the season is exactly the information the front office needs to understand that for as good of a talent as Herro is, he's not a cornerstone building block in the NBA.