Thunderstorm Incoming: Why OKC Is favored to crush the 2025 NBA Finals

Thunder and Pacers meet in a surprise 2025 NBA Finals, with OKC favored to win in five games behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Indiana Pacers v Oklahoma City Thunder
Indiana Pacers v Oklahoma City Thunder | William Purnell/GettyImages

The 2025 NBA Finals will feature two of the youngest teams in the league today: the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Indiana Pacers. Not many expected the two teams to get this far, which makes this matchup all the more exciting.

But this early, pundits are picking the Thunder to win it all. The overwhelming data predicts the Thunder will win in five games over the Pacers.

SGA expected to be Finals MVP

Looking at the rosters of both teams, all eyes will be on OKC’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Indiana’s Tyrese Haliburton. Both are expected to figure in the Finals MVP race along with other names.

Of course, there are other players to watch out for. For the Thunder, there are Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Carson Wallace, and Lu Dort. For the Pacers, the players to watch include Pascal Siakam, Myles Turner, and Andrew Nembhard.

Only OKC can foil its own NBA championship bid

The Thunder are highly favored to win the 2025 NBA Championship across the board. A reason for this is the Thunder’s +12.9 net rating and their +10.8 playoff net rating. And of course, who could forget about the postseason run they had?

The only tough series where they had to play the full route was against the Denver Nuggets in their Western Conference semifinal battle. However, it would be best to single out the demolition job that they gave the Nuggets in Games 2 and 7. If Indiana isn’t careful, they may just get blown out as well.

Pacers are used to being underdogs

Despite the odds being significantly in OKC’s favor, such is unlikely to faze the Pacers. Haliburton acknowledges that they are up against a great team and that it won’t be easy pulling off wins against them.

"This is the best team in the NBA. It's been the best team in the NBA all year. They're well-coached. They just do everything so well. There's no shortcuts to beating this team. "
Tyrese Haliburton

Rather than sulk, Haliburton looks at the upcoming matchup in a different way. They know that to be the best, they have to defeat the best. It is a new challenge for them. But then again, no one expected Indiana to bring down three powerhouse teams in the Eastern Conference – the Milwaukee Bucks, Cleveland Cavaliers, and the New York Knicks.

The Pacers have yet to win an NBA title. The last time they got this far was in 2000, when they faced a Los Angeles Lakers team led by Shaquille O’Neal and Kobe Bryant.

For the Thunder, a successful run could mean their second NBA title in franchise history. They captured the first one way back in 1979 when the team was still known as the Seattle SuperSonics.

Some say this will be a boring series since there are no big-name stars like LeBron James or Stephen Curry playing. But then again, this series is a glimpse of the next generation of superstars, with Gilgeous-Alexander and Haliburton in the lead role.