NBA Rookie Report and Predictions: Kristaps Porzingis

With the 4th pick in the 2015 NBA Draft, the New York Knicks selected Kristaps Porzingis. Here is what you can expect from his rookie year

The 2014-15 NBA season saw the Knicks limp across the finish line en route to a franchise-worst 17-65 record. Carmelo Anthony shut it down around the All-Star break, but that may have had a larger impact on ticket sales than anything else. Despite holding the second worst record in the NBA, the ping pong balls were cruel to the Knicks, dropping them to the 4th spot in the draft.

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Visions of Karl-Anthony Towns or Jahlil Okafor being the next great big man in New York were quickly fading. D’Angelo Russell surged up draft boards and out of the conversation for the Knicks. The debate turned to weighing winning now against planning for a longer-term future. Of course, this brought Carmelo back into the spotlight briefly.

While most Knick fans at the time preferred the more NBA-ready Emmanuel Mudiay, Phil Jackson made a statement towards being in this for the long haul. New York took the biggest gamble in the lottery, drafting Kristaps Porzingis, the boom-or-bust Latvian big man. Only time will tell if this was the correct decision or not, but what can we reasonably expect from Kristaps Porzingis in year 1?

The hype surrounding Porzingis grew exponentially in the month leading up to the draft. He put in a seemingly legendary workout in Vegas, his first in the U.S., prompting many experts to question if Porzingis might actually be the best prospect in the class. This tends to happen every year when we get within two weeks of draft night. That being said, Porzingis does display some fairly unique skills for his size.

Speaking of his size, any conversation about the potential or the problems with Kristaps Porzingis begins and ends with his size. On the one hand, you find a 7-footer who can run the floor with ease and hit from deep at a respectable rate. His athleticism allows him to finish aggressively above the rim when in the lane. On the other hand, you find a 7-footer who weighs only about 210 pounds and looks even skinnier than that.

To put that in perspective, Stanley Johnson weighs 245 pounds, and he is a 6’7” swingman. Johnson did come into the draft with the most NBA-ready body, and you can see why Porzingis in on the other end of that spectrum. Over time, the hope is that Porzingis will bulk up. The Knicks won’t want him to lose his mobility, but at 210 pounds, he is not equipped to endure the rigors of an 82 game season going against a larger man every night.

For his rookie year, the Knicks project to once again be a very bad team. They will outperform last season’s embarrassment, but no one should expect to see this team in the playoffs. Those low expectations will take some of the pressure off Porzingis, allowing him to focus on improving. Looking at this roster, it makes sense for Derrick Williams to start at the 4 and Robin Lopez at the 5. Then, you could bring Porzingis in as relief for either position, giving him experience at both spots. In a learning sense, he will also be able to adjust to how NBA defenses gameplan for the 4 and 5 differently.

Despite starting the year coming off of the bench, Derek Fisher may have to start Porzingis at some points this year, most likely due to injury or when the Knicks inevitably fold up shop somewhere around the All-Star break. I expect Porzingis to average a pedestrian per game statline of nine points, four rebounds, one assist and one block. For a bench player, there is nothing wrong with that. If the Knicks had been trying to win now, they could have gotten much more immediate productivity from the 4th overall pick. However, since they have their sight set on the future, they can sacrifice the present.

I admit Porzingis may develop into a real weapon, but expect a pedestrian statline of 9 points, 4 rebounds, 1 assist, and 1 block per game this year.

My larger concern for Porzingis this season is around his durability. The young big man has never had a serious injury, so I don’t see any increased chance of that happening. It’s more the night-in, night-out beating he will take from much larger men that worries me for this season. I think you will see him miss some time, similar to Jahlil Okafor.

When he is in, opponents will be wise to attack the Knicks down low. Kristaps Porzingis one day should be a capable rim protector. But, with his size and inexperience, that year will not come too soon. This season will see him as a minor liability on defense, but he could be on par with Carmelo Anthony on that end of the floor. The Knicks as a whole are not a good defensive team, so it fair to say that some or the shortcomings we see from Porzingis as a rookie are not all going to be his fault.

The cupboard is nearly bare in New York. It remains to be seen what Carmelo still has in the tank, and the pieces Phil Jackson brought in (Robin Lopez, Derrick Williams, Aaron Afflalo) look to be little more than stopgaps. If Kristaps Porzingis can develop into the threat he projects to be, this team may finally have an identity. For now though, don’t expect too much from the lanky Latvian or the rest of New York.

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