Why The Golden State Warriors Will Lose This Weekend

The Golden State Warriors are a red-hot 20-0. Though, in the midst of a 7-game road trip, the Dub’s first loss of the season will finally come this weekend

If you’re reading this on Monday, it’s because my prediction came true and the Golden State Warriors are no longer undefeated!

If you’re not reading this on Monday, you fall into two categories:

As a Raptor fan, you’re hoping this proves why Toronto will prevail on Saturday;
As a Nets fan, you’re hoping this…..wait a second, you’re not a Nets fan. You are part of a very small group that either wants Golden State to lose, or are a family member of a Brooklyn Net.

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The Golden State Warriors are hotter than Fresh Prince at a craps table. They’ve put to rest any doubts of their legitimacy as favourites to repeat as champs. Sure, they still haven’t faced the Spurs or Cavs but take a look at who and how they’ve played thus far. Already five games vs. last season’s playoff foes – average margin of victory of 23 points. The Dubs have won games playing big (11/30 @ Utah) or small (every other game!). They’ve won blowouts (11/2 vs. Memphis, 119 – 69), games where the outcome was never in doubt (11/24 vs. Lakers), and close contests (11/19 @ Clippers).

Murmurs of a 70-win season have been getting louder with each victory – and rightfully so. They will be favoured to win in all but a handful of road games (1 each in San Antonio and Cleveland come to mind). But games are not won or lost on Vegas odds. Every team has their off-night. While the Warriors have less of those than everyone else, their Saturday & Sunday opponents are both in the position to pull out statement victories.

On deck for Saturday evening, a trip to Canada for a date with the Toronto Drakes, followed by a visit to the Barclay’s Center on Sunday. Yes, a team from the Atlantic division will topple the mighty Warriors!

Why Toronto Can Win

Recency Bias – When these teams faced off on November 17, the Warriors were lights out (what’s new) in the first half. However, the Raptors fought back from an 18-point deficit and had the ball with 24 seconds left, down one. A questionable offensive foul call on Lowry on that possession may have been the difference between victory and defeat.

Toronto vs. Elite – Have you seen the list of teams that Toronto has already vanquished? Having played a league-high 13 road games, the Raptors have defeated the Thunder, Clippers, Wizards, and Hawks. To boot, Toronto has loved some home cooking, with wins over (arguably) the 2 best teams in the East – Indiana and Cleveland.

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Pace – In two-thirds of Golden State’s losses last year, the opponent kept pace slower than the Warriors’s season average. Toronto ranks 24th in pace. If they can dictate the pace, they’ll have a shot at an upset. Toronto was unable to slow the game down in their first meeting, and that led to an insurmountable first half lead.

Why Brooklyn Can Win

Last game was competitive – These teams also met in the Bay Area in November. Whereas the Raptors game saw Toronto claw back from a double-digit deficit, this one required the home team to overcome a 17-point deficit. Golden State needed a clutch 3-pointer from Iguodala in the dying seconds, and a buzzer-beating missed layup from point-blank range from Lopez.

Last season’s games were tight too – They split their season series, with each winning at home. In Brooklyn’s victory on March 2nd, 2015, the Warriors sported the same starting five they currently employ (albeit with a healthy Barnes), while the Nets’ only similar starter was Joe Johnson. Lopez came off the bench(!) and dropped 26 points, as the Nets limited Klay Thompson to an abysmal 3 – 17 shooting night.

Actually, all of their games have been close – The last 11 meetings between these teams have been decided by single digits, with the Warriors holding the 6 – 5 edge. The Nets have already beaten the Hawks, Rockets, and over-achieving Pistons. Something about last season’s NBA Finalists bring out the best in the Nets, as Cleveland needed a floater in the dying seconds to avoid the upset.

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