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Dallas Mavericks: The numbers aren’t pretty, but Dennis Smith Jr. is coming

By Evan Dyal

DALLAS, TX - NOVEMBER 29: Dennis Smith Jr. #1 of the Dallas Mavericks in the first half at American Airlines Center on November 29, 2017 in Dallas, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
DALLAS, TX - NOVEMBER 29: Dennis Smith Jr. #1 of the Dallas Mavericks in the first half at American Airlines Center on November 29, 2017 in Dallas, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images) /
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Dennis Smith Jr has struggled with injuries and inconsistency, but his play of late has to give the Dallas Mavericks a lot of hope

Perhaps no one outside of Dallas is noticing, but the Dallas Mavericks are playing some pretty good basketball as of late. During their last 10, the Mavs are 5-5 and have crawled out of last place in the Western Conference.

After their disastrous 8-23 start, the Mavs are now ranked hirer than the Los Angeles Lakers, Memphis Grizzlies and Sacramento Kings out West. During the last couple of weeks, their offense has also seen quite the turnaround.

During their first 30 games of the season, the Mavs posted a 101.6 offensive rating. Since then, though, they’ve improved that to 106.7.

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There have been a lot of reasons for their recent turnaround – Dirk Nowitzki and J.J. Barea are still clowning young fools on pick-and-pops, Wesley Matthews is hitting shots again, Harrison Barnes is playing more team ball and, perhaps most importantly, Dennis Smith Jr. is beginning to look more and more comfortable.

Smith was trendy pick to win the NBA’s Rookie of the Year award at the start of the season, but because of an injury early in the year he hasn’t been the most consistent rookie. Since his return, though, the Mavs are 5-4. With him in the lineup overall, the Mavs are 12-20. Without him, they are 1-7.

On paper, the numbers aren’t eye-popping, but you can see the improvement by the game. For the season, Smith is averaging 13.8 points, 4.4 assists, 4.1 rebounds on 39 percent shooting. Solid numbers for a rookie.

Right now, Smith doesn’t have a particular scoring go-to. He is average in every kind of offense. The good news is he isn’t terrible at any either, which gives hope that Smith is a very well-rounded scorer when he puts it all together.

For now, Smith is at his best in transition. He is an extraordinary athlete, who is getting his bounce back after an early-season injury. Smith has a 50.6 percent score frequency, which ranks slightly below average. It is important to remember he is a rookie and coming off an injury. Recently, his athleticism has been on display more in transition.

Here in semi-transition, Smith shows what he can do. He brings the ball up and hits Draymond Green with a hesitation dribble at the free throw line acting like he is going to pull it back out, but one Green goes towards him, Smith darts around him and scores a layup over Green’s contest. Again this is Draymond Green, and Smith just it took it to him one-on-one.

Smith also doesn’t get too many transition options being on the old Mavs. Dallas is 25th in pace, but they should give Smith a little more free rein. Yes I know, Carlisle is not really into trusting rookies. In the half court, there is a lot of work to do scoring wise. It has been mostly struggles, turnovers, shot selection and needed to get stronger are all issues. However, Smith has made up for his difficulty in scoring, by making some excellent passes. He has a solid 20.2 assist ratio and is making some passes ahead of his years. Passes he will need to make consistently. Here is a play that shows his ability to read the floor.

Here is a semi-transition scenario; Smith is looking up the floor before he crosses half court. As soon as Smith crosses half court, he rifles a sweet bounce pass through four Pelican defenders to my boy Max Kleber for the easy jam. This is a big-time pass that you don’t see many rookies make.

For Smith to take the next step, his shooting must improve. He only shoots 33 percent from the 3-point line and 68 percent from the free throw line. His free throw shooting is more concerning, though. With how dynamic he is, Smith needs to live in the lane and must learn to shoot free throws.

For the difficulty of some of the 3’s, he takes 33 percent is not awful. Smith is streaky, lacks consistency and needs to work on shot selection. That means less ridiculous step backs and contested pull up threes. Smith just needs to take the 3’s that are there. Like this.

Here Max Kleber sets a screen for Smith at the top left of the key. Darius Miller gladly goes under the screen and dares Smith to take the three. Smith takes his time sets his feet and drills it. His shooting is coming; he just needs to make these and take less of the more difficult ones.

If Smith makes the right plays his scoring will improve as the season goes on.

Now, finally defense. An area where all rookies struggle. Smith is one of those rookies. He ranks in the 15th percentile overall on defense according to Synergy Sports. Smith has the physical tools and is an excellent 85th percentile against isolation. Where Smith struggles is pick and roll defense.

Whether it’s gambling on steals or getting crushed by picks or missing a rotation, Smith has work to do on the individual and team defense. The good news is Smith has shown high energy on this end. Smith is third on the Mavs in deflections, third in loose balls recovered and second in contested three-point shots. He also posts an excellent steal rate for a rookie. The effort is there now he just must learn the game.

Overall, all the analytic nerds like myself would look at Smith’s advanced numbers and be discouraged. Right now he hurts his team when on the floor more than he helps it. That doesn’t mean he hasn’t helped the Mavericks at all. He just had his first triple-double in a win at New Orleans. Smith has shown plenty of flashes and seems to show more each game.

Smith is learning the game and Carlisle is learning how to use him. Especially which lineups to play Smith with. He may have found one with the lineup of Smith, Barnes, Matthews, Yogi Ferell and Dwight Powell. This lineup has a net rating of +25.9 and should see some more time. It works because Smith has three shooters and a rim runner in Powell.

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Give him time and Smith will flourish as one of the top point guards in the game in a few years. The good news is Carlisle is giving him the opportunity to play through mistakes and will only help him going forward. He is with a competent organization that will get the best out of him.

The Dallas Mavericks aren’t going anywhere this season and Dennis Smith Jr. likely won’t win the Rookie of the Year award, but Dallas will get better as the season goes on and that’s because Smith will keep getting better as the season goes on.

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