NBA Trade Rumors: Surging Jazz at Crossroads as trade deadline looms

NBA Trade Rumors: As the NBA trade deadline looms, the surging Utah Jazz have some very big decisions to make regarding some of their big name players

The Utah Jazz planned to stay competitive even after Gordon Hayward left in July. They signed Joe Ingles for four years, and signed Jonas Jerebko and Thabo Sefolosha to short-term contracts. Defensive anchor Rudy Gobert remained a franchise cornerstone. Utah hoped Rodney Hood, Ingles, Alec Burks, and Joe Johnson could cobble up enough points to keep them in games.

Seven months later, Jazz have floated around their initial expectations at 24-28. Gobert has recovered from the knee injury that sidelined him, and should inch the team closer to .500. They have gone on a 6-2 tear since his return.

The Jazz managed to go 12-15 in the time Gobert was out, much thanks to rookie Donovan Mitchell. He has jumped the line of Hood, Dante Exum, and Burks to become the next Hayward.

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Mitchell’s offensive arsenal has been a revelation. He showed flashes of making difficult shots at Louisville, but not on a consistent basis. Mitchell routinely shoots off the dribble, splits pick and rolls, takes wrong footed layups, throws cross court passes, and has a wide catalog of floaters and scoop shots.

At 21, he has been the platonic ideal of a year-one primary creator.

Mitchell is currently leading all rookies in points per game with 19.7. He shooting 45 percent from the field and 35.7 percent from three with a usage rate of almost 30 percent. The one area he can improve drastically is his pull up shooting from three. According to Second Spectrum, he has hit only 29.7 percent on off-the-dribble 3’s. He has shot them with confidence, though, and takes 3.5 per game.

Mitchell’s stats are not empty. He has made his teammates better. Ingles, Jerebko, Hood, and Raul Neto have all had good years from behind the arc. Rubio has assisted on many of these shooters’ buckets, but it’s Mitchell who makes the initial dent in the opposing defense through penetration. Rubio struggled with this in Minnesota.

According to Cleaning the Glass, The Jazz take 33.2 percent of their shots from behind the arc this season, the eighth highest frequency in the league. They attempt 9.9 percent of their attempts from the corner, the second highest in the league. This will regress as Favors and Gobert play more together now that Gobert is back. But this shot profile is a testament to Mitchell’s ability to create for his teammates.

The Jazz consider Mitchell a long term piece and have shifted their mentality towards building around him and Gobert. They are too good to do so through the draft. They have the twelfth best lottery odds, and could easily vault into the playoffs. DeMarcus Cousins is out for the season, and Blake Griffin is now in Detroit. The Nuggets and Blazers are by no means shoo-ins.

Their easiest path to finding their third piece is through free agency. Derrick Favors, Hood, Johnson, Exum, and Neto come off the books this offseason. Jerebko, Sefolosha, and Royce O’Neal are non-guaranteed for 2018-19. Utah could clear up to $28 million in cap space.

Rather than potentially letting Favors and Hood walk, Utah has been quietly shopping them. Rubio’s name has also emerged in rumors. His skill set has become less vital to the team given the emergence of Mitchell.

Getting off Rubio would add up to another $15 million in cap space for the 2018 free agency. This seems like an unrealistic option. No team that needs Rubio can take on his contract.

Favors will also be tricky since he makes about $12 million. Teams that could use Favors like Portland and New York would have to send something back. Neither have expiring contracts to send back, and the Jazz are probably not interested in taking on long term contracts. If the Pelicans receive word that Cousins isn’t interested in staying, they could flip his contract and a future pick for Favors. However, this turn of events doesn’t seem likely to happen within the next few days.

That Hood’s name has been in trade rumors may surprise some. He is around the same age as Mitchell and Gobert, and can help space the floor for them. But the Jazz are wary of capping themselves out by matching a behemoth offer sheet for Hood. They saw what Otto Porter got last year, and are unsure if they want to pay Hood like he’s the third piece.

Hood will be easier to move than Favors because of his small contract and the allure of obtaining his restricted free agency rights. The Celtics seemed like a possibility for Hood before they used their injured player exception on Monroe. I could see a desperate Washington throwing something like Chris McCullough, Sheldon Mac, and a lottery protected 2018 first at the Jazz for Hood. This could give the Jazz another mid-first round pick along with their own to draft role players that fit with Mitchell and Gobert.

As for the upcoming free agency period, Aaron Gordon or Jabari Parker should be Utah’s target. Gordon would provide an interesting defensive frontcourt with Gobert. The Magic forward is excellent at covering ground and continues to improve as a weak side shot blocker.

Gordon’s offense has flourished as he has found his three point stroke. Forcing defenders to close out has opened up the rest of his game. He started off the season scalding hot, but has cooled down since. Gordon doesn’t need to be a great shooter, just good enough to make defenses respect him. It’s unclear if he will consistently demand respect from three, but his overall package of skills is worth a gamble for Utah.

The Magic have won an average of 26 games in the last five seasons, the highest win total being 35 in 2016. They are on pace for 24 wins this season. Their current regime did not draft Gordon. They will likely debate if it’s actually worth giving Gordon the Brinks truck given the franchise’s lack of direction.

Jabari Parker’s market value this offseason is a question mark. He has been a borderline All-Star when healthy, but has just recovered from his second ACL tear. If the Bucks pay him, it will likely be the last major move they can make to build around Giannis until at least 2020. They should really think hard about whether or not they want to do this.

The storyline of Parker potentially going to Utah was prominent during the 2014 NBA Draft given his Mormon faith. I imagine that religion will be merely a piece of the puzzle for Jabari, if that, when he signs an offer sheet this offseason. But given reports of players preferring to not play in Utah in the past, it can’t hurt to have something unique to offer Parker.

Parker fits in nicely with Gobert and Mitchell. Gobert has improved his passing out of pick and rolls, and Parker is one of the best in the league at always looking to turn easy dump passes into easy buckets. Parker doesn’t need plays drawn up for him. He is one of the most opportunistic scorers in the league. He is risky for the Jazz for reasons already mentioned, but may be their best shot at rounding out the team.

It will be exciting to watch the Jazz balance the opportunity to flip rotation players with staying in the playoff race. As long as Utah surrounds Mitchell and Gobert with shooters, the Jazz will stick around. However, Hood and Favors could be the difference between making the playoffs with 45 wins, and just missing with 41.

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Making the playoffs means a lot to this franchise and its fans. In 2013, the Jazz opted to make the playoffs and get swept by the Spurs instead of trading Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap before the deadline. It would be a feel good story for them to make the playoffs directly after Hayward spurned them.

Only Utah can decide whether or not this story is worth the opportunity cost of getting back future assets for their guys on expiring contracts.

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