What is the risk of a significant setback if he comes back?
Imagine you’re Kawhi. Your right quad tendon, connected near your Patellar Tendon has been a plague. It’s been called “knee,” “quad/knee tendinitis,” “Jumper’s Knee,” “Tendinopathy,” “Return-From-Injury Management.”
You’ve battled it off an on over three seasons, nearly half of your entire pro career! You’ve skipped exciting summer USA basketball opportunities because of it. You’ve limited yourself in All-Star games to rest. It may have even been misdiagnosed!
You may not fully trust doctors who work for the team for past mistakes or even their incentives. It’s been a real problem and you don’t want to play on it now and irritate an inflamed overuse injury. As you recently said: I can’t come back unhealthy. Enough is enough.
It’s not simply that you can’t play. Yes, you could go out there and give it a shot if your life depended on it. It’s that it may not be worth it when everything, rehab, long-term health, and yes, finances are all considered. It’s not just the $219 million, though that’s nice. Isaiah Thomas may be a cautionary tale. It’s that you might be jeopardizing your ability to even continue to play basketball at the highest level. The defend-and-beat LeBron, James Harden, Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook level you’ve already achieved. Your career. Your life. Your legacy.
Playing now at 65 percent on meter 1 isn’t worth risking a setback that costs you being “The Claw.”
Now imagine you’re Pop. You’re 69. Your goals are win another one, and leave your Spurs in good hands when you move on. You get the long view stuff. Of course, you’d like him back tomorrow. But you love the kid, as you often say. And your long-term interests are invested in and tied up with his long-term health. They’re probably not too much at odds even if there’s been disagreements over his recovery process.
All things considered, I think his extended absence means his Risk-O-Meter is probably too high right now to be comfortable playing for an outside chance at a ring. It’s possible not even Kawhi himself knows this one for sure so is playing it safe. The prospect of getting that set-back number down below 10 percent over a full summer of rehab and aiming to be fully healthy for next season has to be tempting.
My Inference: Because of the nature of tendon injuries, you may be able to warm them up and play on them, and look really good, but then be in lots of pain later. So how he seems in practice or a game isn’t necessarily a great sign. For what it’s worth, he’s cleared by team doctors and Pop says he may need a bit more work ’til he’s ultimately ready but it’s up to Leonard and his doctors.
Risk-O-Meter: 28 percent