Sir Charles in Charge
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Kawhi Leonard: How the money and the injury will determine his future

By David Early

SACRAMENTO, CA - OCTOBER 27: Kawhi Leonard #2 of the San Antonio Spurs looks on from the bench against the Sacramento Kings during the first quarter of an NBA basketball game at Golden 1 Center on October 27, 2016 in Sacramento, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
SACRAMENTO, CA - OCTOBER 27: Kawhi Leonard #2 of the San Antonio Spurs looks on from the bench against the Sacramento Kings during the first quarter of an NBA basketball game at Golden 1 Center on October 27, 2016 in Sacramento, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images) /
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Trade Scenarios

Pop has final say here and that means balancing risks and rewards. Even if Leonard begged for a trade Pop would probably do everything he could to keep him, and Pop can be very persuasive. For fans of Kawhi, be wary of this possibility: if they were to trade him someplace surprising, (maybe even for a less than exciting haul), like say the Knicks, it would signal to me that Kawhi’s injury is scary and severe and the new team may even be receiving “damaged goods.”

After all, Pop has much more information about this injury than any willing trade partner. So whatever deal Pop accepts means he necessarily believes it helps San Antonio more than simply paying Leonard a Super max. Buyer beware.

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Obviously, choosing to keep and pay him instead, would signal some faith in his long-term health and fans of Leonard could breathe more of a sigh of relief then. Pop knows the history of this injury. He couldn’t be excited to promise $44 million for one season in 2024 if he were truly fearful of this never fully healing.

More likely, however, would be a situation where Leonard was not persuaded by Pop and truly wanted out and then a reluctant mutual agreement to part ways sent Kawhi someplace he preferred, like say his hometown Lakers.

They are one of the few teams who could offer Pop commensurate value in return without necessitating a multi-year rebuild. That would be the most likely trade team. It also would not necessarily signify that his injury was an ongoing concern. It could be a proverbial “doing right” by Kawhi by a team who truly appreciates and respects his wishes.

Finally, if this situation were legitamtely tenuous but no final decisions were reached this summer, they could buy themselves some time and offer him a super max and then revisit trades in September of 2019 when he was next trade-eligible. So even signing him does not necessarily mean he’ll be a Spur for life, even if he said so on contract day.

Must Read: NBA award predictions: Celtics clean up; James Harden gets MVP

Chance of a trade this or next summer: 33 percent

We’ll learn lots more depending on if he decides to play or not these playoffs, and then monitor extension talks.

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