Utah Jazz vs. Houston Rockets primer: Does Utah have a path to victory?

The Utah Jazz lost their best perimeter defender in Ricky Rubio for 10 days to a hamstring injury right before they will face the Houston Rockets. Do they have a chance without Rubio? Did they have a chance with him?

The Utah Jazz were awesome in Game 6, despite Ricky Rubio’s hamstring injury. Donovan Mitchell put on a clinic in the second half, giving the Oklahoma City Thunder every finishing move in the book, and finishing the night with 38 points.

Joe Ingles and Mitchell lit it up from deep. Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors were monsters inside. Role players such as Alec Burks and Royce O’Neale stepped up in the face of Rubio’s absence.

They enter the second round vs. the Houston Rockets as significant underdogs. Many factors need to go Utah’s way to have a chance against the Rockets. All factors predicate on one question: can they guard James Harden?

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The Jazz advanced through the first round because of their defense. According to Cleaning the Glass, Utah logged a defensive rating of 102.0 in the first round of the playoffs. They employed a drop coverage against Russell Westbrook and coaxed him into taking tough pull-up jumpers.

This strategy worked. Per Second Spectrum data provided by NBA.com, Westbrook took 14.7 pull up jumpers a game in the first round, and shot an unsavory effective field goal percentage of 42.6 on them.

Meanwhile, Harden torched Minnesota for employing a similar drop coverage off of pick and rolls. In the first round, he shot an unprecedented 9.4 pull up 3’s a game, and made 38.3 percent of them. He logged an eFG% of 50.8 on all pull-up attempts.

Gobert is miles ahead of Towns on defense, but those pull up threes will be there as long as Houston makes Gobert defend pick and rolls.

Gobert is too important to the Jazz defense to bench. However, this may not be the series for Derrick Favors. Favors is coming off a fantastic first round that showed everyone he is every bit they player he was before his injury. However, he is too slow to switch onto Harden, and will get torched if he drops off of Paul and Harden like they are Westbrook.

This is why Utah traded for Jae Crowder – for his ability to hold his own on defense against various positions. He averaged 27.5 minutes per game in the first round, and will likely see that number bump up to 33 or 34.

It’s unclear where the rest of Favors’ minutes will go. Jonas Jerebko has seen his minutes dwindle in the playoffs, but he does not provide a significant boost in perimeter defense over Favors. Crowder might play more 4 than 3 this series.

The guard rotation is already in flux without Rubio. If Jae Crowder has to spend more time as a big man, it will create an even larger void on the perimeter.

Dante Exum and Alec Burks were once thought to be the backcourt of the Jazz future. They filled in admirably for Rubio in Game 6, but have not shown they can be consistent contributors.

Royce O’Neale might be their best foil for Harden, but has been streaky from deep in the playoffs. If these guys can’t step up, Favors might have to play major minutes for the Jazz.

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The Spurs showed last year that Harden can be beat by drop coverage on pick and rolls. However, this is a new and improved Rockets team. If Harden goes cold at times, Chris Paul is perfectly capable of torching the Jazz for stretches.

Donovan Mitchell looked like the best player on the court on Friday night, despite playing against two All-Stars. Mitchell will have to hold his own against two new All-Stars today. The Jazz defense will have to hold on for dear life.

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