2018 NBA Draft: Why Jaren Jackson Jr. is the best center prospect

DeAndre Ayton and Marvin Bagley III ooze potential, but Jaren Jackson Jr. is tailor made for the modern NBA.

The Suns, Kings, and Hawks have the top three picks in the 2018 NBA Draft. All are rumored to favor drafting American big men over Euroleague MVP Luka Doncic.

Phoenix worked out DeAndre Ayton on Wednesday and Marvin Bagley III after. They will work out Jaren Jackson Jr. soon, but analysts do not consider the Michigan State center a likely second overall pick, let alone first.

Jackson is not the most tantalizing center prospect atop the draft board. He does not have the first step, second leap, polished faceup game, or nose for offensive boards that Bagley does; nor does he have Ayton’s jaw dropping frame or star potential.

However, Jackson has two things neither of those two have: an immediately translatable 3-point stroke and a rare combination of defensive instincts and mobility for his age. These traits are why he should be the first big man off the board.

More from Sir Charles In Charge

As opposing front offices watch the Warriors dismantle the Cavaliers, they yearn for prospects like Jackson. Prospects who could maybe, one day, compete against a whip-smart pace-and-space juggernaut like Golden State.

I am hesitant to use the Warriors as a benchmark for team building because we may never see a team this good for another few decades. Though the Warriors may be a unique phenomenon, their teachings of shooting, pace, and versatility have inspired others. Young teams like Boston and Philadelphia look primed to make credible Golden State impersonations in a few years.

These teams, and others, will force centers to protect the rim, defend in space, play help defense, and switch onto quicker guards. They may not force lumbering bigs off the floor the same way Golden State has, but will make coaches think twice about playing centers who can’t check enough of these defensive boxes.

Jackson is the only center in the draft who will likely check all of these boxes.

Bagley should be able to move with smaller players on switches. However, his help instincts are non-existent, he does not have the length become a plus rim protector, and his defensive technique needs vast improvement.

Ayton looks comfortable guarding perimeter players. He gets in an agile stance that makes you forget he’s actually a seven-foot behemoth. However, he is often late to help, and his technique comes and goes when closing out to shooters.

Bagley and Ayton can become passable defenders. Ayton is more likely to get there. He could even be a decent defender if he becomes a somewhat reliable rim protector.

It’s unlikely that either will become great defenders. Most plus big man defenders demonstrated more defensive awareness than Bagley and Ayton at similar ages.

Before Clint Capela became a Houston mainstay, he showed flashes of high defensive IQ in the 2015 Western Conference Finals, and held his own with the Warriors for stretches. Al Horford was a heady defender going all the way back to his time at Florida.

I don’t mean to say it’s impossible. DeAndre Jordan is an example of a center who developed solid defensive instincts midway through his career. Players like Jordan are not the norm, though.

Despite the switch-heavy, one-on-one nature of today’s game, these instincts matter. Until every team has five 6-foot-8 wings who can guard everyone one on one, help defense and rim protection will be important. When Terry Rozier switched onto a wing scorer in the playoffs, be it LeBron or Khris Middleton, Horford and Aron Baynes were continually in position to help at the rim.

Help defense becomes even harder when guarding stretch bigs. Against shooters, centers have to fly around the court, providing help when necessary, but cannot let up open 3’s. Jackson has room for improvement in this. He would often not fully close out to shooters when recovering after helping.

This is high level stuff, and can be executed by only the best defensive big men – Draymond Green and Anthony Davis come to mind. That Jackson is in a position to potentially develop this skill speaks to the defensive groundwork he has laid.

Considering Jackson’s defensive excellence, Bagley and Ayton are expected to provide more value on offense than Jackson. Both have more offensive tools, and are better offensive rebounders than Jackson, but it’s unclear what their roles will be in the NBA.

Bagley has a vicious faceup game and can beat slower bigs off the dribble routinely. There is value to having a center who can make his own plays. The Celtics were successful on offense this postseason because they had multiple guys who could put it on the deck against mismatches that arose from switching.

Bagley struggled to power past big athletic forwards, though. It’s unclear exactly how effective he will be one on one unless matched up against a slower big man or a diminutive guard. Teams will play these types of players less often because of their incompatibility with switch-heavy schemes.

Ayton could be a monster in the post. He commanded double teams in college, and made solid passes out of traps to find open shooters. He’ll need to be an elite post-up player to justify bending a good NBA offense towards a heavy diet of post touches. He’s could get there, but isn’t there yet.

They might be used most often as roll men. Ayton and Bagley inspire more fear than Jackson when rolling to the basket. Bagley will get up for lobs quickly, and Ayton is a freight train diving to the rim. It’s hard to see them providing significant value over Jackson in this role, though.

Ayton showed the most advanced passing out of the three, but those passes were on post touches where he had a second to read and react to the defense. A successful passer out of rolls only needs a split second. Ayton still seems more prepared than Jackson to make the right pass when rolling, but not by much.

Whatever Jackson lacks as a roll man, he could make up for in the pick-and-pop. Jackson’s shot well from deep in his lone college season. He took 5.0 3-point attempts per 40 minutes. Bagley took 2.1 per 40, and Ayton took 1.2. Jackson also had the best free throw percentage, a trusted indicator of shot form.

Running their stats through Andrew Johnson’s shooting projection model, Bagley is projected to shoot 32.9 percent from 3 in his rookie season, Ayton 33 percent, and Jackson 36.4 percent.

This model factors in 3-point attempt rate, and it’s possible Ayton just wasn’t asked to take threes. But even when he did, his shot looked too flat for me to comfortably project out to NBA 3-point range.

Not only will Jackson’s ability to shoot allow for him to be better fit in most offenses, it will also open up opportunities for him to attack closeouts.

Jackson’s not close to Bagley in this regard, and didn’t get to show it off much at Michigan State, but he has a natural handle for his size. He should be comfortable putting the ball on the floor for straight line drives. Ayton has a stiff dribble, but has also shown ability to put the ball on the floor, albeit not to the same degree as Jackson.

This is what trips me up with Ayton. He is okay at so many things – be it shooting, defensive footwork, dribbling, or passing – that if these skills improve from middling to good, he’s probably better than Jackson.

How many skills does he have to improve on? If he only improves a few skills – which is most likely what will happen – will he be good enough to offset the risk of drafting him over Jackson?

This last question is tough. If Ayton doesn’t fulfill his ceiling outcome, I don’t know what he is. The dominance of guards in today’s NBA has caused an impasse in our assessment of many centers’ value.

Must Read: 2018 NBA Mock Draft 5.0: Mo Bamba crashes the top 3; Trae Young falls

Style of play in the league is dictated by the skill sets of the historically great players. Right now, almost all of those players are guards and forwards. The league will probably continue to favor speed and skill due to the influence of analytics on the modern game.

If Ayton can become a top-10 player who can effectively dissuade teams from going small, this will mask his deficiencies. Until he reaches that level, he’ll be playing in the pace and space NBA, an ecosystem more suited to Jackson.