Denver Nuggets: Jerami Grant’s big decision and whether he should be a priority

Should the Denver Nuggets prioritize Jerami Grant?

A little more than a year after the Denver Nuggets traded for him, it’s safe to say that Jerami Grant‘s first year with the Denver Nuggets was an overwhelming success.

He averaged 26.6 minutes in the regular season, mostly as a backup behind the veteran Paul Millsap, shot 39 percent from behind the arc, and was everything he has been up until this point of his career; a long, athletic wing/big hybrid that’s good at basketball.

Where Grant impressed the most, though, is in the playoffs. Head coach Mike Malone changed the starting lineup for Game 4 in their first-round playoff series against the Utah Jazz, adding Grant and Monte Morris to the usual starters of Millsap, Nikola Jokic, and Jamal Murray.

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Despite losing that game, those starters were in place for two 3-1 series comebacks against the Jazz and then the LA Clippers and were an [~~Mason Plumlee defensive mishap~~] Anthony Davis buzzer-beater away from really pushing the Los Angeles Lakers in the Western Conference Finals.

So how much is Jerami Grant worth on the open market?

In a really dumbed-down way, you’re signing a player who has the ceiling of an elite defender, comfortably sticking with Kawhi Leonard but at age 26, this is probably where his offensive game will stay.

Mike Singer of The Denver Post reported shortly after the Western Conference Finals that Jerami will decline his player option for next season. which is worth $9.3 million.

"“A league source suggested Grant could command anywhere from $14 million to $16 million annually over several years.”"

In my Denver Nuggets offseason preview article, I wrote that I believe the “league source” is actually coming from the Nuggets, driving his value upwards as a way to essentially scare off any potential destinations.

But do they really want to cough up that much for a player who’s the fifth offensive option on Denver’s best lineup?

On the other side of that coin, if Denver let Grant walk, will they even come close to finding a player who can capably defend Kawhi? That could be crucial as they’ll likely meet Kawhi in future playoff series.

Speaking with The Denver Post’s Mike Singer, Mike Malone echoed the same thoughts:

"“You look at the landscape of the Western Conference, you realise, you’re going to have to go through LA, whether it’s the Clippers or the Lakers, or in our case both to get out of the Western Conference.“I knew full well, at some point, we were going to have to put Jerami in the small forward position to combat that.”"

The Mike Singer’s report adds that three teams – the Atlanta Hawks, Detroit Pistons, and Phoenix Suns are all interested in signing the forward.

Atlanta and Detroit can give Grant the $16 million he wants as soon as he walks in the door with all their cap space but would hardly sniff the win count of the Nuggets next season. For that reason, I’m going to ignore those two as possible destinations. If those two teams try and price out the Nuggets, offering Grant more than his market value, around $20 million or more, fair play to them. But they’ve just committed a lot of money to someone whose best-case scenario would be the fourth or fifth best player.

The Phoenix fit is interesting. For them to sign Grant to the projected ~$15 million per, they’ll be squeezed to bring back Aron Baynes and Dario Saric, the latter of which would be replaced by the incoming Grant.

But Denver is much further ahead in their championship timeline even if the Suns didn’t go 8-0 in their Orlando restart.

Phoenix could even be a destination for Paul Millsap if he is the odd man out in Denver, but that’s a discussion for another article.

What really gets my juices flowing is a possible Miami Heat/Jerami Grant pairing.

Miami was in an incredibly interesting situation cap-wise before they even made the NBA Finals. Following the Justise Winslow trade to Memphis, with Goran Dragic’s, Solomon Hill’s, Meyers Leonard’s, and Jae Crowder’s contracts all expiring at the end of this season, Miami will have plenty of cap space to play with (if they want to).

In a normal situation, they would say ‘hey, we just made the NBA Finals! Let’s sign some more complementary pieces and go for another run’. But this isn’t a normal situation and Pat Riley has stars in his eyes, two stars in particular with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Victor Oladipo who will both be unrestricted free agents in the summer of 2021.

Even if it’s just a slim chance at singing Giannis in free agency, it’s worth keeping the opportunity open and adding any long-term money could close that window.

But whatever will they do with all that space?

They can try to offer a number of free agents way more money than they’re worth on one-year deals, someone like Davis Bertans in Washington or one Jerami Grant with the pitch being: Miami is a good team, come here, you’ll make more than your market value in one season here and then we can reassess in the summer of 2021.

If Miami hits and signs Giannis, then the 2020 signee will have the option of making less money but likely being on a title contender/favorite. Or if Miami misses on the big names, the cap space will still be there and someone like Grant could just re-sign or do this exact same dance in free agency.

It’d be an overpay to give Grant $20 million or more, but if it’s just for one season when it won’t affect the rest of your roster, why not?

But then it comes back to Jerami Grant himself. Does he want to leave this Nuggets team that saw the greatest playoff success with him joining the core?

If Denver offers him less money than a Detroit or Miami, does he still stick around? Does he see Phoenix as on a similar trajectory? If not better than his current situation?

Tim Connolly and the entire Denver Nuggets front office have constantly pointed to their continuity as a franchise, having a motto of ‘We Don’t Skip Steps’. It seems unlikely they trade a first-round pick last season for a guy they liked but didn’t plan on retaining. It’s now down to how much Grant wants to stay in Colorado and how ballsy other teams will get when trying to pry him away.