2020 NBA Draft scouting report: The hype is real for Onyeka Okongwu

Onyeka Okongwu is the second-best prospect in the 2020 NBA Draft

A full-length novel wouldn’t even serve the 2015-16 Chino Hills basketball team justice. The greatest-show-in-town demolished everyone en route to a 35-0 record and the No. 1 USA Today ranking.

Much has transpired in the four-plus years since, but while the Ball family was busy thrusting themselves into the national spotlight, another starter from that fabled squad quietly began to make a name for himself.

Onyeka Okongwu ended up leading the LaVar-deserted program to back-to-back state championships – earning California Mr. Basketball both years (the only other multi-time winners in the last 30 years: Jason Kidd, Tyson Chandler, and Aaron Gordon). The five-star recruit then continued this run of success in the NCAA for Southern Cal, landing on the All-Pac 12 team.

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So what can we expect from Okongwu now that’s he’s officially marching on to the NBA?

Okongwu is the best defensive big man in this class (at least, among the top guys). The only uncertainty to me is whether he becomes elite or *merely* very good on that end. In a league where more and more of the top defenses are (and will be) emulating the Bucks’ model, Onyeka is tailor-made to step right in and anchor a team.

He simply controls the paint – through 21 games Okongwu had more dunks by himself than USC had allowed total. Between his quick feet/agility on the perimeter and his explosiveness off two-feet around the basket, Okongwu possesses many of the attributes desired from the modern-day NBA center. But while these physical tools are impressive, the thing that stood out to me about Onyeka Okongwu is his mental understanding of the game

He’s a very instinctual player, nearly always helping on-time to deter drives and layups. Out-of-area rotations like this are commonplace for Okongwu. At the same time, a key element of defense is when to know not to react. All of the top lynchpins (Marc Gasol and Draymond Green being prime examples) are undergoing constant threat-assessment in their head.

“Is that an efficient shot?” “What do I challenge, and what do I concede?”

A lot of this comes with coaching and experience – one of the first things Tommy Lee Jones tells Will Smith in Men in Black is not to push the red button. However, much of it is innate/can’t be taught and Onyeka is clearly a gifted child. An example here, where Okongwu normally wouldn’t sell out to contest a deep floater, but with the shot clock winding down knows that Pritchard is out of options. Cat-and-mouse situations like this only arise more often at the next level.

Okongwu’s feel for the game pops off the screen; whether it’s impeccable timing on Tim Duncan-esc rejections, contorting his body to avoid contact (on both jump-shots and drives), or anticipating passing windows. Add in the fact that has the athleticism to recover when he does get beat, and it’s not hard to get excited about Onyeka’s defensive upside. So what’s the catch?

Standing 6-foot-9 with a (reported) 7-foot-1 wingspan would make Okongwu below-average for an NBA center from a dimensions-standpoint. This lack of size came back to bite him at times in the Pac-12, and will only pose for greater difficulties in a league filled with physical outliers. Onyeka’s skinnier frame allows him to get pushed around in the post and for position on rebounds. The Embiids/Jokics are going to have a field day.

For all of his mobility, Okongwu is a rim-protector at heart – exposing USC’s defenses to pick-and-pop threats and pull-up shooters as a result. He’ll also tend to overly focus on the ball, which impacted his recognition/communication against off-ball screening actions. But I’m mostly nitpicking (especially since he’s 19 years old), and his chops on the perimeter (switching, aggressive pick-and-roll coverages) will only be of greater value in the league. The only thing stopping me from labeling Onyeka Okongwu as a “potential Defensive Player of the Year type-of-guy” is his height.

Offensively it’s a different story. While Okongwu got a bunch of post-up opportunities and took the occasional mid-ranger at Southern Cal, in the NBA he’s strictly going to be a pick-and-roll screen-setter/dive-man, at least at first. Onyeka’s skillset (finishing in the paint, a nose for the offensive glass) is helpful for any team, but we often see bigs without layers of versatility get nailed to the bench – particularly in the playoffs.

That’s where the buck stops. Right now Okongwu’s comfort with the ball reminisces of a game of hot potato. He’s not someone you want putting it on the floor for a single dribble, much less making decisions while on the move. Even in more static situations, Okongwu seemed unsure of himself as a passer. He’s also not going to be a floor-spacer (1 for 4 from three on the season and that make was a heave). If Onyeka Okongwu is that shaky outside of the restricted-area, then what’s the point of picking him high in the draft?

The hope is that Okongwu isn’t actually the complete stiff with the ball that he appeared in college and that I’m putting too much stock in the 28 games. First off, it was a tough situation for him to succeed – starting next to a traditional big man (Nick Rakocevic) and surrounded by an extremely limited cast of guards (both in terms of shooting and ball-handling).

Another high-recruit, Isaiah Mobley (older brother of Evan Mobley, a potential top draft-pick in 2021), struggled mightily to showcase his talents as well. Onyeka made 72.0% of his free-throws, which is an encouraging sign of underlying skill-level/touch. He took incremental strides forward as a play-maker throughout the year. If you average 16.2 points per game and lead the team in both usage and efficiency as a freshman, just how useless offensively can you really be?

Even with these concerns, Onyeka Okongwu is still one of the best prospects in this class to me. There’s a decent chance that he becomes a special defensive player – and importantly, one who can fit in nearly all kinds of schemes.

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I find it hard to believe that a player with his intelligence on one side of the floor would somehow lose all of it on the other end. It’s possible Okongwu just goes down the Ed Davis/Kevon Looney road as a solid but uninspiring center, but to me, it’s more likely that he turns into an above-average to good starter in the NBA. Overall, I’d slot Onyeka Okongwu in as the second-best prospect (to his former teammate LaMelo Ball) in the draft.