NBA: 2020-21 regular season win predictions

5. Indiana Pacers (43-29)

The Indiana Pacers in the last two seasons under Nate McMillan were sort of “the little engine that could.” They made their bones on defense – slowing the pace and fighting through screens rather than switching. They eschewed three-pointers and free-throws for mid-rangers. They were also (relatively) successful – having the fifth best winning percentage in the conference despite exactly 100 games missed total from Victor Oladipo. The starting lineup of Oladipo, Malcolm Brogdon, T.J. Warren, Domantas Sabonis, and Myles Turner has played all of six games together. The vibes appear to be good in training camp, and new head coach Nate Bjorkgren – a Nick Nurse disciple – is going to modernize the offense. With all of the team’s core players in their primes, I believe that this group is poised to take a jump this season.

6. Boston Celtics (43-29)

The sneaky thing about the 2019-20 Boston Celtics is that they were extremely thin after the five starters and Gordon Hayward. While Brad Stevens is always going to steal wins in the regular season, the losses of Hayward and Walker (whose injury situation seems quite concerning) are going to be more impactful than people are willing to acknowledge. The signings of Jeff Teague and Tristian Thompson were pretty strange to me. The team is always going to defend, but I could see them being pretty middling offensively unless Jayson Tatum continues his ascent into a full-born superstar.

7. Miami Heat (39-33)

The reigning Eastern Conference champions in the play-in? Color me a Miami Heat skeptic: beneficiaries of a perfect storm of factors in the bubble – namely an environment conducive to both their organizational culture (militaristic centered around hard work/discipline) and style of play (lots of three-point attempts), Goran Dragic and Jae Crowder playing the best basketball of their respective careers, and facing a team in Milwaukee that didn’t have a off-speed pitch to its fastball on either end (Giannis rampaging on offense, drop-coverage on defense).

This team is going to be beat up from the deep Finals run, with Maurice Harkless the only replacement for Crowder and Derrick Jones Jr. on the wing (Avery Bradley does provide much-needed defense at the point of attack, however). We’ll see what moves Pat Riley and the front office have in-store around the deadline.

8. Atlanta Hawks (34-38)

Last season, the non-Trae Young Atlanta Hawks combined to shoot 32.5 percent on 3’s. After microwaving a playoff contender through free-agency (and undermining the re-build), the team figures to at least be competent now, which is enough for the eight-seed in the Eastern Conference. Barring any unexpected leaps from the young guys, I don’t see how this group plays much better than at a five-hundred level. It will be interesting to see just how much coach Lloyd Pierce really leans into going all-offense.

9. Orlando Magic (31-41)

The Orlando Magic had a rather depressing offseason. Jonathan Isaac is out for the season, as are Al-Farouq Aminu and Mohamed Bamba for the time being; D.J. Augustin is gone. Evan Fournier is back, but he’s unlikely to repeat his 2019-20 play. Same with Michael Carter-Williams. Nikola Vucevic and Terrence Ross are a year older. The odds are Aaron Gordon discovering himself as a Draymond Green-lite grow longer by the passing season. At the same time, the Magic under coach Steve Clifford are always going to be just solid enough to compete for the playoffs in the Eastern Conference.

10. Washington Wizards (31-41)

In theory, the Washington Wizards should be ready to win now. Bradley Beal is in his prime, the young prospects have had ample time to learn through mistakes, and the team has a few semi-capable veterans in Davis Bertans, Robin Lopez, and Ish Smith. But I just don’t think Russell Westbrook is very good at basketball anymore. It took a utopian environment (five-out with no center, unprecedented gravity on James Harden, coached by an offensive genius in Mike D’Antoni) for him to be a functional basketball player last year. He’s going to have the same negative imprint on Beal, while also not providing much of a lift to the team’s porous defense. I wrote more about my concerns with the Wizards here. The Rui Hachimura absence does help, however. Hopefully Deni Avdija can Wally Pipp him.

11. Chicago Bulls (29-43)

12. Cleveland Cavaliers (23-49)

13. Charlotte Hornets (22-50)

14. New York Knicks (18-54)

15. Detroit Pistons (17-55)