Miami Heat: How will the Heat value Duncan Robinson during the offseason?

Assigning financial value to Duncan Robinson won’t be easy for the Miami Heat this offseason.

The Miami Heat‘s rise last season and run to the NBA Finals in the restart bubble doesn’t happen without Duncan Robinson. And as he’s set to hit the free-agent market this offseason, we’re truly going to find out just how much the team really values him as a contributor.

That’s one of the biggest questions that face the Heat heading into the offseason; how will they approach free agency? Not only will they have to answer such questions regarding potential outside targets, but also with a handful of their in-house free agents.

Including Robinson, who is slated to test restricted free agency. That means that Robinson will be able to field offers on the open market, but that the Heat would have the final say in matching an offer from another team or letting him walk in free agency.

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It’s generally the safest and a less risky form of free agency but often requires you to make a hard decision on your free agents. And value is a funny thing in sports, especially the NBA. It’s also often difficult to gauge and even more so when you’re forced to attach value to a dollar figure.

But that’s what the Heat will be tasked with heading into the offseason.

How should the Miami Heat value Duncan Robinson in free agency?

So, in essence, how should Miami value Robinson. Because it’s already been reported that Robinson, who entered the league as an undrafted free agent, could be a $20 million man in free agency.

Statistically speaking, it’s easy to see why Robinson is going to be in line for a big contract extension this offseason. In the two seasons he’s been a starter for the Heat, he’s been productive.

During his first full season as a starter for Miami, Robinson averaged 13.5 points and three rebounds per game on 47 percent shooting from the field and 45 percent shooting from 3-point range (on eight attempts per game).

Predictably, as defenses begin to focus a bit more on Robinson, his percentages took a step back to begin the 2020-21 season. He is still averaging 13 points per game this season, but both his overall field goal percentage and 3-point percentage have fallen a bit – to 44 and 41 percent, respectively.

And when the game slowed down in last year’s postseason, Robinson struggled a bit as his numbers fell to 12 points per game on 43 percent shooting from the field and 40 percent from 3-point range.

Despite that, even on nights when he struggles, Robinson is still an above-average shooter. In a perimeter-oriented NBA, that matters and is valued.

And his impact on the Heat’s offense is evident. Last season, when Robinson was off the court, Miami had a 105.4 offensive rating. When he was on the court, the Heat had a 113.8 offensive rating. Essentially, when Robinson was off the floor, the Heat had one of the worst offenses in the league and when he was on the court, they had a top 10 offensive unit.

Even though this season, he hasn’t been as impactful, in large part due to defenses now game planing against him, the team’s offense still looks different with him off the court.

With him off the court, Miami has a 105.9 offensive rating. And with him on the court, the Heat has a 110 offensive rating.

What will be difficult for Miami is whether this is strictly a Robinson effect or if this is simply his shooting. And if it simply is just his shooting, Miami has to figure out if there’s another Robinson out there that Miami could develop to avoid having to pay him the $20 million price tag that it’s looking like it will cost them.

It’s clear that Robinson is an important player for the Heat; he has been for the past two seasons. The question isn’t whether he’s important for the Heat; it’s whether he’s irreplaceable and if he’s worth $20 million per year?