Ranking top 5 way-too-early 2023-24 NBA Championship favorites
4. Miami Heat
The Miami Heat is an interesting team. They struggled throughout most of the regular season this year and went into the playoffs as the 8-seed. They got hot from there though making a run to the NBA Finals with impressive series wins over the 1-seed Bucks, 5-seed Knicks, and 2-seed Celtics in the Eastern Conference Playoffs before falling to the Nuggets in the Finals.
While it’s easy to discount the run just as a team getting hot, you have to remember the success the Heat have had in prior years. Miami made the Finals in 2020 and made the Eastern Conference Finals in 2022 before the trip back to the Finals this year. Making the conference finals three out of four years is very impressive, and shows that this has been a championship-caliber team for a while.
That’s not to say that they don’t have very obvious issues within the team that must be fixed, almost any Heat fan will tell you that (even after the playoff run this past year). What we do know is this, Jimmy Butler will be back. He is the face of the franchise and the leader of the core at this point.
We also know that there is a very good chance that Bam Adebayo will be back (although I think the Heat would be willing to move him if they are blown away by an offer, but the impact that moving Adebayo would have on the team can’t be understated). He does a ton for the team on both ends of the court as a playmaker and as the anchor of the team defensively. Miami should not and cannot just give him away for the sake of remaking the roster.
After that comes the questions. The Heat likely need improvements both at power forward and they need another dependable score first guard. Their need for more scoring and consistency, in general, was no more evident than in this year’s Finals when the Heat failed to score 100 points in four of the five games (the four games that they lost).
The most interesting piece on the roster might be Tyler Herro. The 23-year-old averaged 20.1 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 4.2 assists this past season. He could have been the extra scoring punch the Heat needed in the Finals, but he broke his hand early in the series against the Bucks. Herro has a lot of potential, but is he ready to be the #3 on a Championship team? Does the Heat believe he can develop into a No. 1 or a No. 2 in the next few years? Do other teams believe he can? The Heat must decide whether they want to hang on to Herro or have him be the centerpiece in their trade package for a more established star.
Speaking of that, the Heat is going to be involved in just about every major player that comes available this offseason. They’ve already been linked to Damian Lillard. Lillard would bring the much-needed offensive spark to the Heat backcourt. Even though it would take a hefty price to get a Lillard deal done (with the package likely centering around Tyler Herro and several 1st rounders), I think Miami at least has to try to get it done to maximize their championship window with Butler and Adebayo.
I think the Heat must also be careful that they don’t go all-in on Lillard and get burnt if Lillard ends up staying in Portland (and all the potential Heat targets end up elsewhere). Some potential other Heat targets include the likes of Kristaps Porzingis, Kyle Kuzma, Jerami Grant, Pascal Siakam, Brook Lopez, John Collins, and DeAndre Ayton in the post. Then the likes of Kyrie Irving, Zach LaVine, D’Angelo Russell, and Fred VanVleet among others.
Other key players on the Heat under contract heading next season include; Kyle Lowry, Duncan Robinson, Caleb Martin, and then youngsters Nikola Jovic and Haywood Highsmith (although several of those players have been mentioned in trade rumors alongside Herro). Some of the key pending Free Agents are Gabe Vincent, Max Strus, and Kevin Love.
Jaime Jaquez Jr., who the team drafted No. 18 overall in the 2023 NBA Draft also feels like a player that could help immediately.
Whether the Heat go all-in on a star to pair with Butler/Bam or they make smaller upgrades throughout the roster, I believe the Heat will look very different next season. However, I believe they will still be a top championship contender.