The NBA Playoffs rarely unfold as planned. Just last season, we watched the Minnesota Timberwolves shock the defending champion Denver Nuggets via a 20-point comeback in Game 7 of the Western Conference semifinals. Kyrie Irving resurrected the 2016 version of himself to help lead the Dallas Mavericks on a Cinderella run to the NBA Finals.
Even Joel Embiid led the playoffs in points per game while playing with Bell's palsy. That's all to say that we should expect the same level of underdog success, player breakouts, and losses that impact the long-term implications of teams in the 2025 playoffs. Here are three bold predictions for the playoffs this season.
1. Jalen Brunson will lead the NBA Playoffs in points per game
Leading the league in any stat category becomes much more possible when Tom Thibodeau is your head coach. Thibs loves playing his guys, and it has shown. Three of the top five minutes-per-game leaders this season are Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, and OG Anunoby, all of whom are Knicks. Jalen Brunson is also 15th in the league in minutes per game at 35.5.
Brunson's minutes per game in the 2023-24 regular season was 35.4, but it leaped to 39.8 in the playoffs. His points per game followed suit, jumping from 28.7 to 32.4, which was the second most behind Joel Embiid. He led the league in shot attempts per game in the playoffs by a wide margin —the difference between him and second-place Tyrese Maxey was the same as the difference between Maxey and 12th-place LeBron James. This season, he leads the NBA in time of possession, seconds per touch, and dribbles per touch; the ball is constantly in his hands.
Further, it feels like destiny that someone on the Knicks will get hurt. Last season, Julius Randle was out for the whole postseason, OG Anunoby injured himself midway through the Knicks' second-round series against Indiana, and Brunson had to exit game seven with a finger injury. As long as that injured player isn't Brunson, his load will only increase as the playoffs get deeper.
Given Brunson's rise in scoring, efficiency, and usage over the last few seasons, I wouldn't be surprised if the Knicks' point guard leads the NBA in playoff points per game.
2. The Indiana Pacers will upset the Cleveland Cavaliers
Cleveland has been riding high all season and appears to be coming back down to earth at the wrong time. They are just 7-6 in their last 13 games and have the 9th-best field goal percentage and the 21st-ranked three-point percentage. Their field goal percentage and three-point percentage prior to that 13-game run were 2nd and 1st in the league, respectively.
Donovan Mitchell has been part of the problem. He's been ice cold from beyond the arc, shooting just 27.1% in the Cavs' last 13 games, including a five-game span in late March where he shot 6-for-42. Mitchell is averaging just 18.8 points per game, and both he and Darius Garland have shot under 43% from the field.
The Cavs will need their offense to cook against the Pacers, who have a great offense of their own and have a better record than the Cavs in the last month. Since March 9th, Indiana has been leading the league in assist percentage and assist-to-turnover ratio. They are third in true shooting, and their pace is back up over 100. They are back to playing Pacers basketball.
If the Pacers can hold serve offensively, I believe they have the ability to pull off a major upset. Cleveland's defense, anchored by Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, is second in opponent field goal percentage inside of five feet and nearly as good from 5-9 feet. Indiana doesn't rely on inside scoring—they are 14th in attempts per game inside of five feet and 23rd from 5-9 feet. They excel on the outside, whereas Cleveland is weaker on defense. Tyrese Haliburton is a matchup problem for Cleveland's small guards with his quickness and length.
Let's not forget that the Pacers have more playoff experience than the Cavs. This iteration of the Cavs hasn't advanced past the conference semifinals, and none of their top four scorers have done so at any point in their career. In contrast, the Pacers reached the conference finals just a year ago and played huge games on the biggest stage.
Indiana is a dark horse to watch in the NBA Playoffs.
3. Jamal Murray's performance will lead to some big offseason questions
The Denver Nuggets firing head coach Mike Malone was a shock to all. While I expect more details to come out, sometimes the story isn't as dramatic as you expect it to be. Still, something feels fishy here.
Josh Kroenke would have only relieved Malone of his duties if he thought the Nuggets had no chance of making a playoff run. Given that we've seen Malone-led Nuggets teams overperform in the playoffs, I don't believe there is a reason to believe he couldn't do it again this year. Therefore, there must be something else that prompted Kroenke to believe that the Nuggets didn't stand a chance this season.
I believe that the reason is Jamal Murray's health. He's been injured for the latter portion of the season but did manage to return in spurts during the final two games of the season. There's a good chance that Murray may not be healthy enough to play an extended role in the NBA Playoffs.
I predict that Murray will not be 100 percent and will be limited for much of the playoffs, and it will lead to some big offseason questions surrounding his future with the team.