The NBA MVP verdict
Now that we’ve broken down the three favorites for the MVP award, we have to answer two big questions: who will win it, and who should win it?
Nikola Jokic appears to be a shoo-in to win the MVP this year. He is the clear favorite by betting odds on Fanduel and he ranks No. 1 on the basketball reference MVP tracker which uses historical trends to predict the MVP race.
It’s not surprising that Jokic is the favorite to be the MVP. He had an extremely productive season and led his team to one of the best records in the league. Also, he leads the league in most plus-minus metrics, which a lot of analytically savvy voters seem to care about a lot. All of this makes him a very obvious MVP candidate.
I would agree that Jokic should be the MVP. He was arguably the best offensive player in the league this season, he was a good defender, and his plus-minus data is insane. Even, though the field of candidates is really strong this year, Jokic was probably the most impactful player.
However, I’m surprised the MVP race isn’t closer because Luka Doncic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and even Giannis Antetokounmpo all have strong cases. If you think any of these guys should be the MVP, I won’t argue with you. Still, Nikola Jokic is inevitable and even though this is the least confident I’ve been in his MVP case over the last four seasons, I’d still vote for him to take home the hardware.