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Game Theory 101: Why Kyrie Irving will likely choose to sit out the rest of the season

By David Early

NBA Boston Celtics Kyrie Irving (Photo by Tim Bradbury/Getty Images)
NBA Boston Celtics Kyrie Irving (Photo by Tim Bradbury/Getty Images) /
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BOSTON, MA – DECEMBER 20: Kyrie Irving #11 of the Boston Celtics attempts a last second shot against the Miami Heat during the fourth quarter at TD Garden on December 20, 2017 in Boston, Massachusetts. The Heat defeat the Celtics 90-89. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
BOSTON, MA – DECEMBER 20: Kyrie Irving #11 of the Boston Celtics attempts a last second shot against the Miami Heat during the fourth quarter at TD Garden on December 20, 2017 in Boston, Massachusetts. The Heat defeat the Celtics 90-89. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images) /

Forecast

With the rational incentives in mind let’s think about how they may effect the NBA Playoffs. According to betting markets, the Celtics now still have roughly a 30 percent chance at making the NBA Finals, and are a lock for the 2nd playoff seed in the Eastern Conference.

But this is roughly where they were before we learned he needed knee surgery. Game Theory might suggest that after some more Chipotle, and a couple more doctor’s visits, and maybe another experiment with rest, he ultimately opts for the most conservative approach.

The lessons of Isaiah Thomas playing through an injury are too close to home for this player and this franchise.

Soon, the Boston Celtics odds at making the Finals will be redistributed to teams like the Toronto Raptors, Cleveland Cavaliers, Philadelphia 76ers, and others. And suddenly a trip to Boston in the first or second round may not be nearly as daunting as it seemed even days ago.

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Brace yourselves for him being ruled out for the year soon. It doesn’t seem worth the known risks to push this for any of the key players involved.

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