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Kawhi Leonard: How the money and the injury will determine his future

By David Early

SACRAMENTO, CA - OCTOBER 27: Kawhi Leonard #2 of the San Antonio Spurs looks on from the bench against the Sacramento Kings during the first quarter of an NBA basketball game at Golden 1 Center on October 27, 2016 in Sacramento, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
SACRAMENTO, CA - OCTOBER 27: Kawhi Leonard #2 of the San Antonio Spurs looks on from the bench against the Sacramento Kings during the first quarter of an NBA basketball game at Golden 1 Center on October 27, 2016 in Sacramento, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images) /
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How productive would Kawhi be if he came back now? 

The teammates think his first meter, the Production-O-Meter, is higher than it really is and it explains their frustration. Where Tony Parker stands, it looks like it says “90” percent. Parker maintains that he had a similar injury that was 100 times worse. And Parker has been back since late November. So from this vantage point, this must be really frustrating. No wonder some teammates may have implored Leonard to play.

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But because we learned of the chronic nature of Kawhi’s injury, I don’t agree that Parker’s ruptured quad injury was that similar or 100 times worse; perhaps more acutely worse, but that’s it. Think about it: if you had a buddy with chronic knee problems off and on for five years, and you never did but then one day you went skiing and tore your knee, would you assume that by the time your injury healed months later his long-term problems would have magically healed also?

If you suggested so, you might really piss him off, right? What’s the implication, that you heal faster? You’re tougher? Or a smarter rehabber?

From Parker’s “shotgun” view, he’s probably overestimating Dial 1. More likely, the Production-O-Meter, is decent and he could in controlled doses, contribute. Maybe not the nightly grind of a marathon season. Maybe not every single game of a grueling playoff. But under a Spursesque “return-to-injury management” program, I believe Leonard could probably perform at a solid percent of what we saw over his last few seasons. He looked pretty good in early January.

My Inference: Because he may really not be close, this is tough. Of course, if he suddenly said he’s going to play, I’d assume he were healthier than I think right now and go even higher. But for this moment, here we go:

Production-O-Meter: 75 percent

Not to be callous, but some of the players may be retiring soon and it’s not their legs or their $200 million they’d be gambling with. So, to answer our next and more challenging question, we need to view this through the eyes of the team and Kawhi himself….

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