The worst-case scenario for the Houston Rockets
Young players, second-year coach, a strong Western Conference; not exactly the prime situation for a young team to string together a winning season. There are several instances for the Rockets that, while building the team and player skill-level, does not translate into winning basketball.
With John Wall’s reportedly mutual agreement to sit out of games for the Houston Rockets for the duration of the 2021-22 season until the front office can find a suitable exit for the five-time All-Star, Houston has handed the reins to Kevin Porter Jr. as the starting point guard. His sophomore season was certainly promising, starting in all but three of his 26 appearances with the team.
As far as efficiency at the one-spot is concerned, Kevin Porter Jr. is far from the most productive. Not only did Porter Jr. average a career-high 6.3 assists per game, but also 3.5 turnovers to round it out. Porter’s shooting was inconsistent, posting 43/31/73 shooting splits in the 2020-21 season, as is expected from a young shot-taking guard. While one could expect his numbers to improve as he settles into his role, it would be wise to leave expectations low, especially with another high-volume shot-taker joining the starting lineup.
Jalen Green will inevitably be pouring in buckets at a respectable clip, perhaps in an Anthony Edwards-esque manner. Though having proved his scoring pedigree already with the G-League Ignite, as well as during the NBA Summer League, it is expected that rookies will be met with a steep learning curve for scoring in the NBA.
Expect to see Jalen Green be made the focal point of the offense, but it may not be the most efficient outing. Green’s lack of experience combined with a young team may result in him becoming a one-dimensional ball-dominant scorer who has yet to develop (as of now) a fully realized offensive arsenal beyond scoring.
Coming off of a season with 30 players on the roster, the Rockets are no stranger to constant personnel changes. The Rockets will still likely experience mild roster turnover, as younger players and two-way deals come and go. Furthermore, there is always the fear of injury, with players like Christian Wood, Danuel House, and Eric Gordon having played a combined 104 games last season.
Though the prospect of another season at the bottom of the league’s standings might not sound appealing, the Rockets are owed the two most favorable picks belonging to Brooklyn, Miami, or Houston in the 2022 Draft. A losing season may be in the Rockets’ future, but it is unlikely to be in vain.
In all, this season is set to allow the Houston Rockets to experiment. Having Kevin Porter Jr. as the team’s primary ball-handler, Jalen Green spearheading the offensive production, all while managing to integrate and include new additions in a way that advances already present skill sets in the countless young players Houston has at the ready.
Worst-case scenario: 22-60 (14-15th in Western Conference, 28-30th in NBA)