Revisiting Duncan Robinson’s early-season shooting struggles and how it has impacted the Miami Heat.
The Miami Heat may be sitting in the second seed in the Eastern Conference with a 12-7 record but there are still concerns that could end up derailing their feel-good one-quarter into the 2021-22 NBA season.
And the biggest of their concerns should be centered around Duncan Robinson and his early-season shooting struggles.
Robinson’s numbers are not promising. Looking at his shooting profile, it’s no surprise that nearly 90 percent of the shots he attempts are from 3. That’s what he is for the Heat, a shooter that stretches the defense. That’s how he’s made his money and the biggest reason why he’s in the starting lineup for the team.
Where it becomes a problem is when the results on those 3-point attempts aren’t coming. And, right now, they’re not coming.
Robinson is seventh in the league in 3-point attempts at 9.1 per game. On those attempts, he’s only shooting 33.7 percent. Since he became a full-time player, that’s a career-low. And, in fact, he shot 45 percent and 41 percent from 3 in each of his first two full-time seasons in the NBA. So, 33.7 percent wouldn’t quantify as just a career-low, it would be the true definition of falling off a cliff for him.
To put that number in perspective, Mo Bamba is shooting 34 percent from 3 this season. Take that for what it is.
Taking it a step further, Robinson is shooting even worse when it comes to catch-and-shoot 3’s. He’s at 32 percent on the season in catch-and-shoot 3-point situations. Interestingly enough, Robinson has been much better on pull-up 3’s, shooting nearly 40 percent in those situations. Though, he’s only averaging 1.7 of them per game.
Last season, Robinson shot 41.7 percent on catch-and-shoot 3’s. On pull-up stations, he shot 37.9 percent.
In situations in which Robinson is “open,” which is defined by a defender being 4-6 feet away, Robinson is shooting slightly better. He’s taking 3.7 attempts from 3 in which he’s “open” and hitting on 35.7 percent of them.
In those stations last season, Robinson was hitting at a 41 percent clip.
On shots in which Robinson is “wide open,” in which a defender is more than six feet away, Robinson is shooting 44.7 percent in those situations. Last year, he shot 47.7 percent when he was “wide open.”
Across the board, it’s pretty clear that Robinson is in the midst of a rough start. If he’s not careful, it can easily be turned into a down season. Robinson struggled at various points last season, but never to the extent that he’s struggled so far this season.
There are concerning signs and I’m not sure what the medicine is for Robinson’s woes. The worst month of shooting that Robinson suffered last season was when he shot 37 percent from 3 during the month of February.
As much as many want to call this a slow start to the season, that’s not what this is. Robinson now has a practically 20-game sample of being an average 3-point shooter. I’m not sure what to make of Robinson, but it’s not a rough start. This is now officially a trend that has encompassed one-quarter of the season.
The Miami Heat have some big decisions to make regarding Robinson and, quite frankly, I’m just glad I’m not the one having to make them.