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03 Mar

Uncontested Shots: Lakers News, Notes, and Observations Heading Into March

Posted by: Andrew Ungvari

As the NBA regular season begins its final full month of action, there are still a lot of unanswered questions.

While the top seeds in each conferences seem to be locked up by the Lakers and Cavaliers, the 14 other playoff seeds, as well as home-court advantage throughout the playoffs, are up in the air.

In the aftermath of the Lakers’ come-from-behind victory over the Nuggets on Sunday night, I figured now would be a good time for my latest round of Uncontested Shots.

Without further ado….

More Rumors Regarding LeBron to the Lakers

HoopsHype columnist and well-respected NBA writer/historian Roland Lazenby wrote a post on his blog on Sunday stating that LeBron James is, “quietly making overtures to the Los Angeles Lakers,” based on knowledge from an “unimpeachable” source.

Understand that Lazenby’s post should be taken a lot more serious than the one that Bulls.com writer, Sam Smith wrote back in November .

While Smith’s article was mostly written on a hunch, Lazenby’s comes from a “well-connected agent.”

There are a few things that need to be considered. First and foremost, I don’t think LeBron is leaving Cleveland. So before any Cavs fans start writing me hate messages, this is really for me to explain how the move would be possible, and not why it’s probable.

Personally, I think LeBron will sign a three or four-year extension, and explore free agency in a few years when he’s still only 28 or 29.

My first instinct was that the rumor had been put out by the Lakers as an attempt to expedite Kobe’s extension—something that was once considered a foregone conclusion, but now raises questions with each day it remains unsigned.

The idea being that if Kobe isn’t interested in signing an extension this season and decides to opt out of the final year on his current deal, he runs the risk of the Lakers turning their attention to LeBron. Isn’t that exactly what the Lakers did when they turned their attention to Ron Artest once Trevor Ariza’s agent turned down their initial offer?

The largest obstacle standing in the way of LeBron joining the Lakers is their salary cap next season, even without Kobe’s contract. So unless LeBron decided to play for the mid-level exemption, there’s no way they could match the type of offers that LeBron will get from the Cavs, Knicks, Bulls, or any other team with significant cap space this summer.

There is always the possibility that the Lakers and Cavs could pull off a sign-and-trade.

One school of thought says that if LeBron was intent on leaving Cleveland, the Cavs wouldn’t help accommodate him with a sign-and-trade—preferring to watch him lose out on millions by leaving.

The other side of that argument is that the Cavs are currently committed to Antawn Jamison, Mo Williams, Anderson Varejao, and Daniel Gibson for at least the next two seasons and might prefer to at least get something of value in return if LeBron is indeed intent on leaving.

It’s not as if the Cavs would have much cap space to add a quality player if LeBron decided to leave via free agency. It would be in their best interest to at least acquire an asset or two to remain competitive and rebuild in the aftermath of his departure.

If you were a Cavs fan and LeBron was dead set on leaving, would you rather his wallet suffer and receive nothing in return, or see your team acquire Andrew Bynum, and either Lamar Odom or Ron Artest?

If the Cavs weren’t willing to trade him away, the only way he could join the Lakers would be by accepting the mid-level exemption for three years before the Lakers would own his Bird Rights, and be able to reward him with a new contract.

Considering the NBA’s current collective bargaining agreement is set to expire after next season, there’s no guarantee that would still be a possibility with the new CBA.

Again, I’m not suggesting this as a real possibility so much as it is an explanation of how it could happen.

In other words, it’s unlikely but not impossible.

In Defense of Lakers Fans

I’ve been a Lakers season-ticket holder for 21 years. I’ve heard every joke about Laker fans being fakes and phonies, arriving late to games just to leave early.

I’ll never defend the lame taco promotion that’s done nothing to change the perception of Laker fans. In case you don’t know what I’m talking about, there’s a promotion at every home game where every fan receives a coupon for two free tacos if the Lakers win and hold their opponents under 100 points.

As a result, many Lakers fans seem to get a kick out of chanting “We want tacos!” the moment they realize it’s within reach.

Consider that the average cost of a Lakers ticket is $107, and the cost of two tacos at Jack In The Box is 99 cents.

I can’t get over the fact that these people go berserk over free tacos when 99 percent of them have enough change in their car’s ashtray to afford not one, but two of these greasy colon-cloggers.

Let’s also not forget that this is Los Angeles we’re talking about. A city that’s home to better Mexican restaurants and taco stands than even Tijuana or Cancún, and yet it’s the tacos from a San Diego-based fast-food chain that causes them to turn into four-year-olds.

I can’t tell you how embarrassing it was during the Lakers game on Feb. 16 against Golden State when Laker fans began chanting for tacos as Stephen Curry made a layup with 1:31 left in the game and the Lakers only up by five points.

A two-possession game and instead of “Defense!” chants they were chanting for freakin’ tacos!

I just want people to know that I can be as critical, if not more so, than those complaining about what happened on Sunday afternoon at Staples Center.

There was much criticism on the Internet regarding the Laker fans’ booing of the team’s first-half performance.

I wasn’t at Sunday’s game but I’ve been to a number of games where fans have booed the home team—including the game in which Kobe scored 81 points, and Game 7 against Portland in the 2000 Western Conference Finals.

These critics need to understand the difference between booing performance and booing effort.

If a team is giving their all and shots just aren’t falling, then booing is totally unacceptable. If a team is showing a lack of passion and effort in a game that many labeled a “must win,” then in my opinion, it’s completely acceptable given the average cost of a ticket.

There’s no doubt about it: Laker fans are spoiled. Where fans in Portland or Cleveland consider it their duty to inspire their team from the get-go, Laker fans rely on the team’s effort to give them a reason to cheer.

See the difference?

I’m not excusing their behavior as much as I am explaining it.

Laker fans have a standard by which they measure a team’s greatness that is unlike any other team in the league, and I don’t even think reading my article helps explain what I’m talking about.

Anything less than that type of effort is completely unacceptable.

The fact that the Trail Blazers haven’t won a championship since 1977, and the Cavaliers have never won one might explain why their fans are so passionate. No matter how passionate Laker fans might be, it’s impossible for them to pretend to mimic the voice and passion of a fan base as desperate for a championship as those in Portland and Cleveland.

The fact that the Lakers came out for the second half with a vengeance gave their fans a reason to cheer and they responded.

There were some fans and beat writers in Portland who couldn’t understand how the Blazers and Lakers tied for third in a survey that asked the league’s general managers, “Which team has the best home court advantage?”

Both teams received three out of a possible 29 votes (the Cavs finished first with 11, and Utah finished second with nine).

Part of the reason the Lakers finished third was because tough teams would be hard to beat, even in an empty arena. But another reason, contrary to popular belief, is because the Staples Center can be an intimidating place for opponents when the building is as popping as it was during the second half of Sunday’s game.

How Will Shaq’s Thumb Injury Factor in the Race For Home-Court Advantage?

Even though the Lakers and Cavs are only separated by one game in the standings, the Cavs virtually have a two-game lead in light of the fact that they won both regular season meetings between the two.

The Cavs are expected to be without O’Neal for the next eight weeks and won’t be able to re-sign Zydrunas Ilgauskas until March 22.

If that’s the case, the Cavs can expect to be without Ilgauskas for the next 11 games.

Lucky for them, there aren’t many challenging games during that stretch.

In fact, the entire month of March doesn’t pose much of a challenge for the Cavs.

With the exception of potential trap games at Milwaukee and at New Orleans, the only games that should worry Cavs fans are road games at Chicago and San Antonio, and a date at home with the Celtics (if you still consider them a challenge).

While both teams have 22 games left heading into Monday night, the Lakers play 14 on the road while the Cavs only have 10 of those away from home.

You could make the case that the Lakers have as many tough road games as the Cavs have total road games left.

Of the Lakers’ 14 remaining road games, they include matchups against Miami, Charlotte, Orlando, Phoenix, San Antonio, Oklahoma City, Houston, New Orleans, Atlanta, and Denver.

That list doesn’t include home games against San Antonio, Portland, and Utah.

The Cavs’ toughest remaining road games are against the Celtics, Bulls (twice), Hawks, Bucks, Hornets, and Spurs.

Their toughest home games are against the Magic, Celtics, Spurs, Hawks, and Raptors.

Make no mistake, even with Shaq’s injury, the Cavs are still in the driver’s seat to claim home court advantage should the two teams meet in the Finals.

I Don’t Know What To Make Of It

The Lakers already have one fewer loss than they had all of last season. Of the Lakers’ 16 losses last season, six came against teams that would end the season below .500.

This season, the Lakers have only lost one game to a team that currently has a losing record—the Clippers on Jan. 6.

While it’s encouraging that they haven’t suffered lapses against the league’s worst teams, it can’t be a good sign that they’ve struggled in the games against the league’s best.

Against the other nine teams that make up the league’s top ten records, the Lakers have an unimpressive 10-9 record.

The silver lining in their difficult remaining schedule is that they have a golden opportunity to silence critics with an impressive showing heading into the playoffs.

In the meantime, critics and fans will continue doubting their ability to repeat.

Considering how they’ve played in many of those tough games up until now, you can’t really blame them for doing so.

19 Jan

Andrew Bynum: Just Call Him Mr. January

Posted by: Andrew Ungvari
PHOENIX - DECEMBER 28:  Andrew Bynum #17 of the Los Angeles Lakers in action during the NBA game against the Phoenix Suns at US Airways Center on December 28, 2009 in Phoenix, Arizona.  The Suns defeated the Lakers 118-103. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement.  (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) Christian Petersen/Getty Images

It’s funny how the schedule makers in every sport seem to find a way to schedule a few games each season that can’t just be explained by luck.

Don’t confuse fluke scheduling with deliberate scheduling. For example, nobody should be surprised if the Red Sox and Yankees or Cardinals and Cubs were to play each other the final week of the regular season.

What I’m talking about is the kind of scheduling we saw the opening weekend of the NFL playoffs when three of the four games were rematches of games played the Sunday before.

In the NBA, the scheduling gods don’t seem to bless us as often as we’d like but every once in a while a game comes out of nowhere that makes us wonder how a certain two teams just so happen to play each other on a certain day.

Los Angeles Lakers starting center Andrew Bynum has suffered knee injuries the past two Januarys in games against the Memphis Grizzlies. Bynum hasn’t played a game in the month of February since Feb. 26, 2007.

Starting this Thursday, the Lakers begin a road trip that sees them playing eight games in 12 days. The road trip ends on Feb. 1 in—you guessed it—Memphis.

What’s remarkable about Bynum’s knee injuries is that both occurred during the two best stretches of his career.

The numbers don’t lie.

In January of 2008, Bynum was averaging 18.8 points and 12.8 rebounds per game before suffering a subluxation to his knee.

But the biggest stat at the time of the injury was the Lakers’ 25-11 record. Keep in mind that this was just a few months after Kobe Bryant had asked the team to trade him because he didn’t want to waste the remaining years of his prime on a rebuilding team.

So while many fans, media members, and NBA people love to point out how the Lakers mugged the Grizzlies when they traded for Pau Gasol, those same people seem to forget that the Gasol trade was a byproduct of Bynum’s injury.

Lakers general manager Mitch Kupchak has gone on record saying that the Lakers would not have made the Gasol trade had Bynum not suffered the injury.

Bynum never played another game that season and was sidelined as the Lakers fell to the Boston Celtics in the Finals that June.

He returned to the active lineup at the start of the 2008-09 season. In addition to finding ways to bounce back from the injury he also had to find a way to coexist with Gasol—with whom he’d yet to play a game.

While Bynum had had stretches here and there of good games he hadn’t registered a single 20-point game through the team’s first 46 games.

But once the calendar changed to 2009 he was beginning to resemble the player he was before that first injury. In the 12 games between Jan. 7 and Jan. 30, Bynum was averaging 20.8 ppg and 8.7 rpg—including a 42-point game and four games where he pulled down 14 or more rebounds.

But on Jan. 31 Bynum suffered his second knee injury—this time a torn MCL that kept him out of the Lakers’ next 32 games.

He did manage to return before the end of the regular season but he never resembled the player he was in either of the previous Januarys.

This season Bynum has played his best basketball with Gasol on the sidelines due to separate hamstring injuries.

But the pattern of Bynum playing his basketball in the year’s first month has continued. Excluding Monday night’s game–where he played a season-low 22 minutes in a victory over the Orlando Magic due to gastrointestinal problems—he is averaging 18.8 ppg and 9.7 rpg in 2010.

His annual renaissance could not have come at a better time for the Lakers, who currently have a two-game lead in the loss column over the Cleveland Cavaliers in the race for the league’s best record and home-court advantage throughout the playoffs.

The two teams meet for the second time this season Thursday night in front of a nationally-televised audience.

The Cavs have won two more road games than the Lakers have played this season so this road trip could have a great impact on which team would have home-court advantage should the two teams meet in the NBA Finals.

With Kobe dealing with broken fingers and back spasms and Gasol’s recent hamstring injuries, both have made a concerted attempt to get Bynum involved on the offensive end early to help ease the burden on themselves.

While Bynum still has to figure out ways to stay out of foul trouble early in games, his reputation has improved so much that the Peter Vecsey of The New York Post recently reported that the Lakers and Toronto Raptors were discussing a trade involving Bynum and Chris Bosh—one of the league’s best players.

Gasol and Bynum are still a work in progress. Not so surprising when you realize they have yet to play 100 games together. Thursday night’s game in Cleveland will only be the 97th including playoff games and many of those 97 were played with Bynum recovering from his two injuries.

It’s kind of crazy that they have played so few games together when you consider that Gasol was traded from Memphis to the Lakers in 2008. But it isn’t nearly so far-fetched when you realize the trade happened on—that’s right—Feb. 1.

Andrew Ungvari is a co-lead blogger for basketball website SirCharlesInCharge.com .

Follow him on twitter .

18 Jan

10 Upcoming Free Agents Who Have Improved Their Stock This Season

Posted by: Andrew Ungvari

PHOENIX - DECEMBER 11:  J.J. Redick #7 of the Orlando Magic stands on the court during the NBA game against the Phoenix Suns at US Airways Center on December 11, 2009 in Phoenix, Arizona. The Suns defeated the Magic 106-103.  NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement.  (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

If you missed Part I, “10 Upcoming NBA Free Agents Who May Have Hurt Their Value This Season,” you can find it here.

I’m not going to waste your time or mine in listing the cream of the crop in this summer’s free agent class since the guys who are poised to receive max contract offers can’t increase their value any.

The other thing to note when looking at the list is that I avoided players with team options for next year because if they’ve increased their value then they will most likely have their options exercised by teams afraid of letting them go.

For example, does anybody think the Houston Rockets won’t exercise the $3 million option on Carl Landry’s contract for next season? Or that the Dallas Mavericks won’t bring J.J. Barea back for $1.8 million?

However, there are a number of players on the list who are restricted free agents who have done wonders for their value considering the number of teams who will have cap space.

All that being said, here’s the list (in no particular order):

Jon Brockman, Sacramento Kings

Anybody who saw Brockman playing for the University of Washington knew that he was a gamer. You might say that he was the Northwest’s version of Bryant “Big Country” Reeves.

But as good as Brockman’s college career was there weren’t many outside of Washington who thought Brockman could have a career in the NBA. Mainly because he was a 6-7 power forward and, dare I say it, a bit chunky.

Brockman was drafted 38th by the Portland Trailblazers and then traded to Sacramento along with Sergio Rodriguez for the draft rights to Jeff Pendergraph.

When Brockman showed up for training camp he was almost unrecognizable. He’d slimmed down considerably and earned himself a two-year contract that makes him a restricted free agent in the second year.

What Brockman does won’t show up on any stats sheets. Shaq even gave him a shout-out on twitter, dubbing him “The Brockness Monster” and comparing him to his old teammate, Mark Madsen.

The Kings are in line to have a significant amount of cap space with which to either sign free agents with or absorb another team’s player in cap-clearing trade.

While I fully expect the Kings to bring Brockman back there’s a chance that another team could offer Brockman a deal that the Kings might be afraid of matching.

David Lee, New York Knicks

Last summer when Lee was a restricted free agents it didn’t seem like he was getting much attention from the handful of teams with cap space.

Perhaps the Knicks had scared teams away from signing him to an offer sheet that they vowed they would match.

Many expected the Portland Trail Blazers would go after Lee after getting rebuffed by Hedo Turkoglu and having their offer sheet to Paul Millsap matched by the Jazz.

Instead the Blazers used their cap space on Andre Miller and Lee returned to the Knicks for one year and $7 million.

Unless the Knicks can find someone to take either Jared Jeffries or Eddy Curry off their hands in a trade they might have to renounce Lee in order to create enough cap space to sign one of the top-tier free agents.

Lee is tied for sixth in the league in double-doubles with 20 in 37 games. He’s averaging close to 19 points and 11 rebounds per game.

And while Lee’s numbers might seem a bit inflated in Mike D’Antoni’s system what can’t be questioned is Lee’s motor and ability to continue playing his heart out despite the fact that the Knicks have a record of 126-239 in his four-plus seasons.

Shannon Brown, Los Angeles Lakers

Brown is one of three point guards on the Lakers roster who can become a free agent this summer. Derek Fisher is in the final year of his contract and Jordan Farmar is a restricted free agent.

Ask any Lakers fan which of the three they’d want to have on next year’s roster and most will say Brown.

Last summer Brown signed a two-year extension with the Lakers that gives him an option for next season at $2.2 million.

When given minutes, Brown has produced—both with highlight reel dunks and his ability to knock down open three-pointers.

Brown is very much in the same position that Trevor Ariza was in last season just without the spot in the starting lineup.

He is no longer the hidden gem that was considered a throw-in in last year’s cost-cutting trade that sent Vladimir Radmanovic to the Charlotte Bobcats for Adam Morrison.

Since the Lakers have the league’s highest payroll they might be afraid to offer Brown the type of deal and/or minutes that other teams might be willing to offer. For a team that’s so far over the luxury tax, any deal for Brown would cost the Lakers twice as much money when you factor in the tax.

Lakers fans love to think that anybody would be crazy to leave a team in a warm-weather city that is in contention for a title every season. What they seem to forget is that anybody would jump ship if it meant getting the type of deal that would allow them to not have to find a job once their playing career is over with.

Channing Frye, Phoenix Suns

Like Brown, Frye signed a two-year deal with Phoenix that gives him a player option for next season at about $2 million.

Nobody could have predicted that Frye would have the type of season he has been having playing for his hometown team.

He’s currently eighth in the league in three-point shooting at 44 percent. That’s a pretty remarkable turnaround for a guy who had only made 20 of the 70 three-pointers he had attempted through the first four seasons of his career (28.5 percent).

It’s inevitable that some will attribute Frye’s career season to the “Seven Seconds of Less” system in Phoenix and/or because he’s playing alongside future Hall of Famer Steve Nash.

The reality is that Frye has proven to be worth much more than what he’s scheduled to make if he doesn’t opt out.

Rasual Butler, Los Angeles Clippers

Butler is one of three Clippers who appear on this list. The Clippers stole Butler from the cost-cutting Hornets for a conditional 2016 second round draft pick. He’s making close to $4 million in the final season of a 4-year, $14 million deal he signed with New Orleans back in 2006.

It’s not often teams give away guys making 37 percent of their career three-point attempts for conditional second round picks. Butler is averaging 10.5 points on 42 percent shooting (34 percent from downtown).

While Butler might not be looking at a significant raise next season he’s sure to make some GM look like a genius for snagging him—not bad for a guy drafted 52nd overall in the 2002 NBA Draft.

Sebastian Telfair, Los Angeles Clippers

For the first time in his six professional seasons people are talking more about what Telfair is doing on the court than off.

Some people have credited that to Telfair’s cousin, Stephon Marbury, being out of the league. Those same people believe that Telfair no longer has to worry about being compared to his cousin and can now just be his own man and concentrate on getting better.

While Telfair’s numbers won’t impress anyone (4.6 ppg and 2.6 apg), he has shown flashes of brilliance reminiscent of what Chauncey Billups was doing in Minnesota backing up Terrell Brandon.

I fully expect Telfair’s name to appear on a list of next season’s biggest free agency steals.

While he isn’t expected to make that much more than $2.5 million he’s making this season, he may decide to exercise his $2.7 million player option for the opportunity to sign a long-term deal and get the chance to start elsewhere—not such a long-shot for a point guard who doesn’t turn 25 until June.

Craig Smith, Los Angeles Clippers

The Rhino is the third member of the Clippers to appear on the list. Like Telfair, Smith’s numbers won’t dazzle anybody. In fact, Smith is averaging the fewest points per game (5.8 ppg) of his four-year career.

But just like Brockman, Smith provides instant energy off the bench and is worth more than the $2.5 million he is making this year.

Smith is the type of player who pulls down that big offensive rebound late in a game and attacks the rim with reckless abandonment—think Udonis Haslem Lite.

Perhaps the Clippers are limiting Smith’s minutes so they can keep his value down next summer.

Either way, Smith should be a hot commodity for either a team that uses the bulk of it’s cap space on a big-name free agent and needs someone like Smith to fill out a roster with or for a team that’s limited in cap space and is willing to plunk down a portion of their mid-level exemption for a space-eater who shoots a high percentage and rarely makes mistakes.

Matt Barnes, Orlando Magic

Barnes is on his seventh team in seven seasons—pretty remarkable when you consider how much fans, teammates, and coaches love him. It’s a crime that Barnes has yet to surpass $10 million in total career earnings with such a well-rounded game.

Just like Brown, Frye, and Telfair, Barnes has an option next year on the two-year, $3 million deal he signed with the Orlando Magic last summer.

He’s averaging 8.4 ppg and 5.4 rpg in just 23 minutes, but he’s 34th in the league in plus/minus. With Barnes in the lineup the Magic have outscored their opponents by 146 points.

Barnes is an X-Factor type player much in the same way that James Posey was for the 2008 Boston Celtics.

Barnes was a star for the Golden State Warriors when they upset the Mavericks in the 2007 playoffs. He has missed the playoffs in each of the last two seasons with Golden State and Phoenix.

If Barnes can shine for the Magic in this year’s playoffs the way he did for the Warriors three years ago then there will be no shortage of teams lining up for his services.

J.J. Redick, Orlando Magic

Redick, the 11th pick of the 2006 NBA Draft, has mostly been considered a bust up until now.

After three lackluster seasons in which most of the stories about him have been about his unhappiness with playing time, Redick seems to have the confidence of his teammates and head coach, Stan Van Gundy.

Perhaps it’s because this might be Redick’s last chance to earn himself a long-term deal.

Redick is averaging close to 10 ppg in about 23 mpg but he’s shooting 41 percent on his three-pointers—good enough for 17th in the league and better than noted marksmen Jason Kapono, Rashard Lewis, and Hedo Turkoglu.

Redick will be a restricted free agent and is very much in the same situation as Shannon Brown. Since the Magic are so high over the luxury tax they might be unwilling to match even a reasonable offer for Redick from another team.

While I don’t think that Redick will ever be the starting shooting guard on a championship team, he can be a valuable player off the bench for one.

Roger Mason, Jr., San Antonio Spurs

Mason is another guy who won’t really impress you with his statistics. However, he’s a smart player and great citizen who won’t scare any GM from committing to him long-term.

Mason lost his starting job when the Spurs acquired Richard Jefferson and didn’t utter a peep about the demotion. It’s not that anybody would consider Mason a better player than Jefferson, but he was coming off a very strong year in which he hit a number of big shots and made 42 percent of his three-pointers attempts.

The Spurs are another team that might be unwilling to spend big money to keep bench players with so much money committed to their best players.

The Spurs also have to decide whether or not to re-sign Manu Ginobili and that might depend on how successful of a season they have this year.

There’s always the chance that the Spurs elect to let Ginobili go and keep Mason, although that’s a long shot.

Mason is making close to $3.8 million this season and, at 29, will be looking for long-term security after short stints with the Bulls, Raptors, Wizards, and Spurs.


Andrew Ungvari is  co-lead blogger for the basketball website SirCharlesInCharge.com. Follow him on twitter.

13 Jan

10 Upcoming NBA Free Agents Who May Have Hurt Their Value This Season

Posted by: Andrew Ungvari

We all know the obvious names in the NBA Free Agent Class of 2010—LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Joe Johnson, etc.

We also know the names of the guys who have the chance to rip up their current deals and sign new ones before the expiration of the league’s current collective bargaining agreement—Amaré Stoudemire, Paul Pierce, Dirk Nowitzki, Kenyon Martin, etc.

But there are a number of soon-to-be free agents, or potential free agents, who might find the free agent market not as welcoming to them as they initially perceived it might be.

Some of these guys are free-agents-to-be, while others have either early termination options or player options on their current deals that they might think twice about exercising.

While it’s expected that many players will take financial hits in light of the current state of the economy, many of those on this list could be facing an even bigger hit than expected.

Be on the lookout for part two, where I examine those upcoming free agents whose values have increased this season.

The list is in no particular order.

Tyson Chandler, Charlotte Bobcats

Last summer, Chandler was traded from the Hornets to the Bobcats for Emeka Okafor. While it was seen as a cost-cutting move, the trade hasn’t really worked out for either team.

Okafor is averaging fewer points and rebounds than he did his rookie season while Chandler has already missed 10 games this season—mostly due to a stress reaction in his left foot.

Even in a league with so few legitimate centers, there’s very little chance that Chandler will choose to exercise the early termination option in his deal.

There isn’t much of a chance that the nine-year pro, who is averaging 6.6 points and seven rebounds per game, will make more money than the $12.75 million he is scheduled to make next season.

Even though Chandler would have been expected to take a pay cut next season, there was a legitimate chance that he would have been able to receive another long-term deal.

It would have bode Chandler well to have at least one injury-free season before becoming a free agent. Given his injury history, it’s unlikely that Chandler will ever receive another deal for more than three years—despite turning 27 just a few months ago.

Richard Jefferson, San Antonio Spurs

Jefferson was No. 1 on my list of the worst offseason transactions so far this season.

If Jefferson was on the open market this summer, it would be hard to include him amongst the top-10 available free agents.

Jefferson is averaging 13.2 ppg, the lowest since his rookie season and four fewer points than his career average—despite only playing four fewer minutes per game.

Jefferson has an early-termination option for next season at $15 million that he probably wouldn’t have terminated regardless of how successful his season was.

At the same time, if he had lived up to the expectations and proven his value to the Spurs, there was a chance that he could have opted out and forced the Spurs into giving him a long-term deal.

But if his play continues to decrease over this season and next then Jefferson, who turns 30 in June, will be lucky to get another contract for more than three years in the summer of 2011.

Derek Fisher, Los Angeles Lakers

Fisher is in the final year of a three-year, $14 million deal he signed with the Lakers after the Jazz granted him his release so he could seek better medical care for his daughter.

All three of the Lakers point guards face uncertainty this coming off-season. Fisher is an unrestricted free agent, Jordan Farmar is a restricted free agent, and Shannon Brown has a player option for next season (more on Brown in Part 2).

While Fisher’s value to the team can’t be weighed solely in statistics, it’s becoming increasingly clear that Fisher may have to take a pay cut if he wants to remain a member of the league’s highest-paid roster.

So far this season, Fisher is averaging 7.3 points and 2.7 assists per game. He’s shooting just 36 percent on his three-pointers and has struggled to defend the league’s premiere point guards.

I recently wrote that when Fisher shoots a three-pointer, I’m more fixated on what Lakers are in position to grab the rebound than I am on whether the shot will go in.

Fisher has stated that he’d like to play past this season. He’s the president of the NBA Player’s Association and would have to be an active player in order to continue in that role.

With the league’s current CBA expected to expire in the summer of 2011, Fisher would have to play at least one more season for that to happen.

The Lakers will most likely try to re-sign their co-captain but will hope to do so at a reduced rate, given his decrease in productivity.

John Salmons, Chicago Bulls

Salmons was a key contributor to last season’s first-round almost-upset of the Boston Celtics.

Just before Christmas, Bulls’ head coach Vinny Del Negro replaced Salmons in the starting lineup with Kirk Hinrich and since then, the Bulls have won five of eight games.

After averaging 18.3 ppg in each of the last two seasons, Salmons has seen his average dip to 13.1 this season.

Salmons has an early-termination option on his contract and would earn $5.8 million if he chose not to exercise it.

The Bulls are hoping to be big players in free agency and that may or may not depend on whether Salmons chooses to terminate his contract.

While Salmons has proved he’s a bona fide scorer, it doesn’t look like he could do better than $5.8 million on the open market.

There’s always the chance he may decide it’s worth opting out in exchange for another long-term deal, since he has a much better chance of getting one at 30 than he does in 2011 at 31.

T.J. Ford, Indiana Pacers

I’ve never been a fan of T.J. Ford. Anybody who has read my writing over the past three years could tell you that.

Fans of the Toronto Raptors always had an overvalued sense of what Ford was worth, and I was tired of defending myself.

Then the Raptors made Ford available for trade and all they were able to get for him was a washed-up Jermaine O’Neal and the draft rights to Nathan Jawai.

Now, Ford is listed third on the Pacers depth chart at point guard behind Earl Watson and rookie A.J. Price.

Pacers head coach Jim O’Brien must really not like Ford since the chances of Larry Bird finding a willing trade partner decreases with each DNP – COACH’S DECISION he accrues.

Ford has a player option for next season at $8.5 million. If I had $8.5 million, I would bet all of it that Ford won’t opt out.

For a team headed nowhere, it would behoove them to play Ford. Teams would be much more willing to trade for Ford’s 2011 expiring contract if they felt they could at least get something out of him on the court.

Ford has a career-scoring average of about 15 ppg. This season he’s averaging close to 10. While the rest of Ford’s season averages aren’t that far off from his career averages, it seems as if Ford is being blamed for the team’s 11-25 record.

If he were playing well, it wouldn’t be inconceivable for Ford to opt out and sign a new long-term deal.

But now that’s impossible unless the Pacers think that not playing him might make him miserable enough to opt out just so he can play elsewhere.

Michael Redd, Milwaukee Bucks

As I write this, the news has just come out that Redd will miss the rest of this season with tears to his ACL and MCL suffered in Sunday night’s game against the Lakers.

Redd has a player option for next season at $18.3 million that this latest setback won’t have any bearing on, since there was no way that Redd would have opted out anyway.

The only thing that has changed is that Redd’s career could be over and his salary for next season could be covered by insurance.

If that’s the case, then this might come as welcome news to the cash-strapped Bucks.

Either way, a possible horrible ending to the career of a guy that, by all accounts, was considered one of the league’s good guys.

Ray Allen, Boston Celtics

The good news for Allen is that the Celtics are 26-9 and have the best record in the Eastern Conference.

As a result, there hasn’t been much attention paid to the fact that Allen is in the midst of the worst three-point shooting season of his career. He’s also scoring fewer points per game than in any season since his rookie year.

It’s not as if Allen has taken a big dip in minutes. He is averaging 16.5 ppg in 36 minutes a game after averaging 18 ppg in the same amount of minutes last season.

Allen is making close to $20 million in the final year of his contract.

While the Celtics are fully aware of Allen’s value to the team, the fact that his numbers are starting to decline might scare off other teams. As a result, Allen could lose a lot of leverage in his negotiations with the Celtics next summer.

With Rajon Rondo’s extension kicking in next season, a possible new contract for Paul Pierce, and a roster to fill out, there was a chance that the Celtics might not have been able to compete with an offer from another team.

But now it appears that the Celtics might be able to re-sign Allen and still end up paying less money combined for Allen and Rondo than they are paying them for this season.

The question now is whether the Celtics will feel the need to offer Allen more than two years if he doesn’t receive an offer from another team.

Before the season started, it wouldn’t have been absurd to think Allen could get a deal similar to the one Lamar Odom signed with the Lakers last summer (four years, $36 million—$30 million guaranteed).

Now the Celtics seem like they could get away with giving Allen two years, $20 million.

Mike Miller, Washington Wizards

The biggest problem that Miller has faced this season is his inability to stay healthy. Because of an injury to his left calf muscle, Miller has only appeared in 11 of the Wizards’ 35 games this season.

With Gilbert Arenas suspended indefinitely, Miller has a golden opportunity to pad his stats, but teams might be unwilling to offer a long-term deal to the former Florida, Gator who turns 30 next month.

On the bright side, Miller has made 15 of his 25 three-point attempts this season.

Miller has now missed at least 12 games in all but two of his 10 seasons—the lone exceptions being his rookie season and 2008-09 when he missed nine games.

Miller is making $9.75 million in the final year of his deal and is sure to take a pay cut next season wherever he ends up.

Nate Robinson, New York Knicks

Robinson was a restricted free agent last summer and received very little interest from any team other than the Knicks.

Maybe teams were afraid to lock up cap space for a week while the Knicks decided whether to match an offer, or maybe it was because teams viewed Robinson as a one-dimensional player who can score but do little else.

As a result, Robinson and the Knicks agreed on a one-year, $4 million deal that will make Robinson an unrestricted free agent this summer.

If Ben Gordon could get five years, $55 million from the Pistons, then surely Robinson could get at least four years, $40 million from somebody, right?

Wrong.

Robinson was benched for 14 straight games by head coach Mike D’Antoni, and only recently has he been part of the rotation again.

He did manage to score 41 points in his first action since being benched but that might not be enough to change the opinions of teams who have already been scared off from Robinson.

The good news is that Robinson seems like the type who likes to play with a chip on his shoulder. Whoever does get Robinson next summer will get a motivated player on a mission to prove his critics wrong and make the GMs who passed on him pay.

Tracy McGrady, Houston Rockets

It’s hard to criticize McGrady when you consider that he hasn’t really done anything wrong. Had the Rockets not surpassed expectations through the early part of this season, they might have been more willing to give him a chance to play.

But because the team is playing really well without him, they see no sense in letting him play when they have no intention of bringing him back next season and hindering the progress of the team’s new nucleus.

McGrady, the league’s highest-paid player, is in Chicago working out with trainer Tim Grover while he awaits either his release or a trade.

McGrady’s only goal this season will be to get on the court and prove that he has fully recovered from microfracture surgery.

Either way, he shouldn’t expect to receive any big money offers from teams next summer. He is making $23 million this year and will be lucky to get a third of that next season.

Like his good friend Mike Miller, McGrady hasn’t been able to prove that he can stay healthy over the course of an entire season. Since 2003-04, McGrady has missed 15, 4, 32, 11, 16, and 47 games.

29 Dec

Looking Back (Part II): The Worst OffSeason Moves in the NBA So Far

Posted by: Andrew Ungvari

If you missed Part I: The Best Offseason Moves in the NBA So Far click here.

You know the old expression that hindsight is 20/20. And while that is true most of the time, there are instances where teams in every sport try to make bold moves that they hope will pan out in spite of the fact that most people thought it was a bad move at the time.

Is anyone surprised that the Chicago Cubs traded Milton Bradley one year into a 3-year, $30 million contract he signed last year?

The only reason the Cubs were able to find a taker for Bradley was because the team that took Bradley, the Seattle Mariners, dumped their own big mistake in the process.

But enough about baseball.

My criteria in compiling this list was simple. Injured players such as the Clippers’ Blake Griffin were ineligible because it’s too soon to declare them mistakes.

But what I did include were draft picks—especially lottery picks— since teams had a wide array of players from which to choose from.

One name that might be expected to be on my list but isn’t is Allen Iverson. It was just too obvious. I preferred to make a list based on guys who are still on the team’s that either signed or drafted them.

To call Iverson’s three-game stint with the Grizzlies a failure would be an understatement.

Without further ado, here the 10 worst off-season moves so far this season:

10. Ricky Rubio, Minnesota Timberwolves

The reason Rubio makes the list is because the Timberwolves traded Randy Foye and Mike Miller to acquire the fifth pick in the draft.

Rubio’s decision to return to Spain for at least the next two years means that the Timberwolves gave up two decent players for nothing.

If the Timberwolves (7-24) weren’t currently the worst team in the Western conference then you could make the case that they made the better move for the long-term future of the team.

But because Rubio could stand to make more money if he stayed in Spain for three more years instead of two there’s a great chance that the Wolves might not even get the chance to see Rubio in Minnesota until the 2012-13 season.

You can’t tell me that the future of the Wolves wouldn’t seem a little brighter if the team had used the pick to draft either Stephen Curry or Brandon Jennings.

9. Darko Milicic, New York Knicks

When the Knicks traded Quentin Richardson to the Grizzlies for Darko Milicic it wasn’t meant as strictly a financial move since both are in the final year of their contracts.

The Knicks were hopeful that Milicic, a huge bust up to this point in his career, would thrive in Mike D’Antoni’s up-tempo offense.

Instead, Milicic has already made it known publicly that this will be his final NBA season as he intends to return to Europe after this season.

Milicic has only appeared in eight games this season and is averaging just two points and two rebounds in those games.

Those stats wouldn’t look so bad if Richardson—who was traded three more times after the Grizzlies obtained him—wasn’t shooting 47 percent, including a career-best 42 percent from downtown for the Miami Heat.

8. Andre Miller, Portland Trailblazers

I’ve never been one to kick a man while his down. And while I’m fully aware of why the Blazers signed Miller, all of the team’s recent injuries have only proved that the Blazers would have been better off using the cap space they had last summer to sign another big man.

After the Blazers struck out on Hedo Turkoglu and Paul Millsap the team was forced to use their cap space because it would expire next season when the extensions for Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge kick in.

But instead of signing Miller the team probably could have traded the cap space to a team looking for cap relief.

With all of their injuries the Blazers now have Juwan Howard playing big minutes but they have five players on their roster capable of playing point guard.

Even before the injuries to Greg Oden and Joel Pryzbilla the Miller signing would have been considered a bust because it’s not as if anyone is surprised that Oden is hurt again.

Had he had no history of injuries then I could better understand the Blazers going into the season with so little depth at center.

7. Emeka Okafor, New Orleans Hornets

When the Hornets traded Tyson Chandler for Emeka Okafor it was seen as strictly a financial move. For a team desperate to shed payroll, the Hornets were willing to take on Okafor’s long-term contract for the final two years of Chandler’s contract because it would reduce the team’s payroll for this season.

So far, Okafor has responded by averaging career lows in both points and rebounds. In fact, Okafor is averaging four fewer points and one fewer rebound than he averaged his rookie season.

The Hornets are currently in 12th place in the Western conference. I would be willing to be more patient with Okafor had Chris Paul not made an All-Star out of David West and an Olympian out of Chandler.

Okafor was the second player picked in the 2004 NBA Draft. If he can’t succeed with Chris Paul at the helm I have a hard time believing that he’ll live up to the remaining four years and $52 million remaining on his contract after this season.

6. Flip Saunders, Washington Wizards

The only coach to make either list, Saunders has been a complete bust in the nation’s capital.

Before the season started, Saunders had amassed a career coaching record of 1,002-578—a winning percentage of .634.

So far this season the Wizards are 10-19 and fans are already calling for his head.

With a roster as talented as he has in Washington, Saunders has no excuses for the team not being at least a .500 ball club.

Considering all of the injuries that the team suffered last season, the Wizards would have been better off keeping Eddie Jordan around for at least another season.

Instead, there are rumors that the Wizards are ready to blow the team up and rebuild.

5. Brandon Bass, Orlando Magic

I wasn’t a fan of the Bass signing at the time and I made it known publicly. Here’s what I wrote in the comments section of Brandon Ribak’s article about the Magic signing Bass last July:

“If any owner would be willing to spend the money it takes to keep a free agent it’s Mark Cuban. If Cubes felt it wasn’t worth keeping Brandon Bass around for four years and $18 million what does that say about him?”

In his last 21 games, Bass has only played double-digit minutes three times—including 10 DNPs.

I’d be willing to give Bass and the Magic more rope if they hadn’t signed Bass with the intention of him providing valuable minutes off the bench.

Instead, nobody would be surprised if the Magic traded him before the Feb. 18 trade deadline.

4. Hasheem Thabeet, Memphis Grizzlies

The Draft Class of 2009 was initially considered to be a weak one. Much of the reason for that was the Grizzlies selection of Hasheem Thabeet with the number two overall pick.

Instead, the Class of ‘09 is looking better and better by the day. Guys like Brandon Jennings, Ty Lawson, Jonas Jerebko, Jon Brockman, Chase Budinger, Omri Casspi, Darren Collison, and Taj Gibson have already made invaluable contributions to their teams.

Meanwhile, Thabeet has yet to crack double-digits in scoring or rebounding on a team that has already surpassed expectations.

I wouldn’t be as down on the Thabeet pick if the Grizzlies would have just trusted that Marc Gasol was the team’s center of the future.

They didn’t need Thabeet.

Instead of using their pick to draft the best player available they reached for the stars with a guy that many believed was too much of a project to take such a big chance on.

The Thabeet pick looked even worse when the team failed to reach an agreement on an extension with Rudy Gay—making him a restricted free agent in a summer when so many teams will have an abundance of cap space.

I’m not saying that Thabeet is already a bust. What I’m saying is that right now it looks as if the Grizzlies wasted the pick when they could have had Tyreke Evans, Brandon Jennings, or even DeMar Derozan.

You don’t think the people of Memphis wouldn’t have loved to see Evans stay in Memphis?

3. Jordan Hill, New York Knicks

If the Knicks fail to find a taker for the final season of either Eddy Curry or Jared Jeffries’ horrible contracts you can blame Donnie Walsh’s selection of Jordan Hill as to the reason why.

The Knicks should have enough cap space next summer to make a run at one prime free agent but unless they can move either Curry or Jeffries for an expiring contract they won’t be able to sign two.

Since the team has no first-round pick in next summer’s draft, the only way they would have been able to convince another team to take back Curry or Jeffries in a trade would be with a promising young player still on a rookie contract.

If the reports are true, then 2008 rookie Danilo Gallinari is untouchable.

Which makes Hill even more of a bust.

Had the Knicks drafted Brandon Jennings then they could either trade him or at worst, been a much more attractive destination for free agents. At least free agents would know that the Knicks could add a player in 2011 to a nucleus of Jennings, Gallinari, and the A-list free agent.

Hill hasn’t played in a game since Dec. 2 and in the 10 games he has played in he has scored more than seven points just once.

He’s not going to increase his trade stock collecting dust on the bench. While he might one day be a decent NBA player, when you consider that this was the pick that could have turned the franchise around next summer, it’s hard not to call it a bust as of today.

2. Hedo Turkoglu, Toronto Raptors

The Raptors are tied with the Cleveland Cavaliers for the NBA’s longest current winning streak. So while I may be premature in calling their sign-and-trade of Turkoglu last summer to a 5-year, $53 million contract a failure.

As far as the big picture is concerned, the Raptors are currently 15-17 and are given up an Eastern Conference-leading 105.8 points per game.

The reason why Turkoglu is so high on the list is because of the high expectations that were placed on him. He was expected to help turn the franchise around.

Turkoglu has scored 20 or more points in just five of the 31 games he’s played in this season.

That’s not a lot of production from a guy making double-digit millions this season.

While the move hasn’t looked all that good so far this season, I will say that Turkoglu has the best chance of anyone on the list of taking his name off of it.

If the Raptors more closely resemble the team that was 11-17 a week ago and Chris Bosh bolts in free agency next summer then you can point to Turkoglu as the straw that broke the camel’s back.

If the team continues to win, finishes fifth in the Eastern conference, and Bosh stays then I’ll remove him from the list.

1. Richard Jefferson, San Antonio Spurs

Speaking of high expectations, the San Antonio Spurs were on the top of almost everyone’s list of which teams had the best off-seasons.

Not long after the Lakers celebrated their 15th championship the Spurs were already hell-bent on preventing number 16.

In a move on par with the Lakers robbery of Pau Gasol from Memphis, the Spurs stole Richard Jefferson from the Bucks for Kurt Thomas, Fabricio Oberto, and Bruce Bowen.

Jefferson was expected to be the final piece for a team that felt that the only thing preventing them from winning another championship was injuries and their lack of depth.

Spurs owner, Peter Holt, was willing to open up the vault to provide Tim Duncan with another shot at adding to his jewelry collection.

So far Jefferson hasn’t provided anything more than the occasional good game.

The Spurs look old and are currently just 17-11. While that’s not a horrible record, keep in mind that the only victories the Spurs have had this year over teams that would make the playoffs if they started today were against the Raptors (15-17), the Bucks (12-17), the Mavericks (22-9), and Rockets (18-13).

That’s two wins out of 17 over teams with winning records.

The Spurs have also played six more games at home this season than they have on the road, where they are 5-6.

Jefferson’s 13.1 ppg and four rpg are his lowest averages since his rookie season in 2001-02.

That could be considered a little misleading when you realize that Jefferson is playing on a team so talented that he doesn’t really have to score or rebound in order for the team to win.

But the fact that the team has failed to live up to expectations combined with the fact that Jefferson is making $14.2 million this season and $15 million next season makes him the worst off-season acquisition up to this point in the season.

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